A string of Labour leadership contenders and Cabinet ministers risk losing their seats at the next election if the Government pushes ahead with its “tourist tax”, a new poll has revealed.
The survey of 10,000 people for UKHospitality suggests voters are nearly 10 times more likely to punish an MP who backs the tax at the ballot box, threatening the Government’s majority in 200 seats.
The industry groups opposed to plans for the new tax, which was announced by Rachel Reeves in last year’s Budget and is expected to be featured in this month’s King’s Speech.
The tourist tax would allow English mayoral authorities and local councils in Wales and Scotland to impose a levy on overnight visitors in a boost to budgets at a time when many have faced deep cuts. While the amount is still to be decided, a model being introduced in Edinburgh in July is 5 per cent.
Labour mayors have been pushing for the tourist tax as a way to fund local infrastructure. England is currently the only country among the G7 which blocks authorities from allowing tourist levies.
It is estimated in London alone, a tourist levy could raise £240m a year – both Scotland and Wales have both recently introduced different types of taxes on overnight visitors.
The mega-poll used multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) modelling – whereby a large poll is combined with other sources of data such as census information – to drill down into opinion at a constituency level.
Cabinet ministers under threat
In 200 of the 411 seats won by Sir Keir Starmer’s party in 2024, the number of Labour supporters who would be less likely to vote for their MP over their support for the tax exceeds the sitting MPs’ 2024 majority.
Cabinet ministers and leadership contenders who face losing their seats under the poll findings include Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, Angela Rayner, Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, Emma Reynolds and Steve Reed.
Overall, 56 per cent of those asked are opposed to the tax while just 24 per cent are in favour.
And one in five Brits would refrain from booking a holiday in England as a result of any increase to the cost of a break from the tourist tax.
Plans for the levy, which has also been dubbed a “holiday tax”, come amid increased pressures on the cost of living due to the war in Iran, as well as a surge in bookings for UK staycations as a result of fears over jet fuel shortages.
Would a holiday tax threaten staycations?
A separate poll for The i Paper on Sunday revealed that three in 10 people are considering changing their holiday plans due to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rise in interest for domestic holidays.
But UKHospitality said just as there was renewed interest in staycations, people would be alarmed at the cost of a UK break being higher if the tourist tax goes ahead.
The organisation said the tax could add more than £100 to the cost of a two-week break.
In the UKHospitality poll, 47 per cent of people would be less likely to vote for their existing MP if they supported the tax, compared with just 5 per cent who said it would make them more likely to back them.
Some 40 per cent of Labour voters in 2024 said they would be less likely to re-elect an MP who supported the tax.
The UKHospitality polling shows that a majority oppose the tax in 574 of 632 British constituencies.
And 45 per cent of Conservative 2024 voters said they would be less likely to re-elect an MP who supported the tax, alongside 40 per cent of Liberal Democrats, 47 per cent of Greens and 53 per cent of Reform UK voters.
Nearly two thirds of people who said they “struggle to make ends meet” oppose the holiday tax, while almost three quarters said a holiday tax would stop them holidaying in England, reduce the number of trips they take, or reduce how much they can spend while on trips.
‘Wake up call’ for every MP
Allen Simpson, chief executive of UKHospitality, said: “This polling should be a wake-up call for every MP tempted to back the holiday tax.
“It is opposed by a majority of their constituents, it would deter millions from holidaying in England, and it would hit hardest the very families the Government says it wants to help.
“Voters are nearly 10 times more likely to punish their MP for backing this tax than to thank them for it. That is a political signal no MP should ignore. The public’s verdict is clear and decisive: stop the holiday tax. Let’s keep holidays relaxing, not taxing.”
Butlin’s chief executive Jon Hendry Pickup said: “For many families, a holiday tax won’t mean choosing a different type of break – it will mean not going on holiday at all. The numbers here are stark and in an already price-sensitive market, even small increases can be the tipping point between booking and staying at home.”
Reform UK said none of its mayors would impose the tax in their areas.
The party’s Treasury spokesman, Robert Jenrick, said: “There appears to be nothing that Labour won’t tax. This will be the death knell for many seaside resorts and will stop up to one in five Brits holidaying in England.
“No Reform UK mayors will enforce this terrible tax. We want people to be able to have fun and enjoy themselves without being clobbered by the taxman. This latest ploy from Labour shows they have completely giving up on serving hard-pressed people.”
A Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesperson said: “This poll is based on speculation. The final design of the visitor levy has not been decided.
“We’re clear that the levy will ensure areas benefit even more from tourism and ,ayors will have more money to invest in local priorities.”
Stack Data Strategy interviewed 10,005 adults online across Great Britain for UK Hospitality, in partnership with Butlin’s, Haven and Hilton, between 24 March and 20 April 2026.