The extraordinary election meltdown that could see Starmer ousted

Voters in Wales and Scotland will also go to the polls to choose new devolved parliaments.

The Scottish National Party is expected to top the polls north of the border, with Reform emerging as the main opposition at Holyrood and pushing Labour into a distant third.

In Wales, Plaid Cymru is likely to be the biggest party in the new-look 96 member Senedd, with Reform coming in second ahead of the previously dominant Labour Party.

Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said the elections “look like being an absolute bloodbath for Labour and Keir Starmer, an incredibly unpopular Prime Minister leading an incredibly unpopular Government that, fairly or unfairly, voters are blaming for pretty much everything that’s going on right now”.

In normal times, Starmer “would probably face a challenge in the wake of the huge losses of councils and councillors it’s set to face”, Bale said.

But the Middle East crisis may offer a stay of execution, with the Prime Minister emphasising the need for stability at a time of such geopolitical uncertainty.

London falling?

Labour is under pressure across the country, but its collapse could be most spectacular in the capital, where it currently holds nearly two thirds of council seats.

The party is expected to lose control of a number of London councils as younger progressive voters switch to the Greens in large numbers. Boroughs that could flip from red to green include Hackney, where the party currently holds 43 of 57 seats, and Lambeth, where it holds 54 of 63 seats.

A YouGov MRP poll last month suggested that Greens could take Lewisham, where Labour currently holds all but two of 54 seats. Polanski’s party is also expected to make big inroads in Southwark, Islington and Camden – Starmer’s home council – while Labour also faces pressure in inner London from pro-Gaza independents.

The Conservatives could also compound Labour’s misery in the capital on an otherwise gloomy night for Badenoch’s troops. The Tories are expected to take back Barnet, where Labour currently have a 21-seat majority.

They also need a gain of just three seats to wrest back control of Westminster, which Labour won to much fanfare in 2022. The Conservatives are also targeting Wandsworth, the party’s erstwhile flaship London council which also fell to Labour four years ago, although a victory here is considered less probable.

Binned off

Outside of London, Labour also looks to be in deep trouble in Birmingham, where it holds a narrow majority.

The city council – the largest local authority in Europe, serving more than a million residents – has endured a torrid few years.

It declared itself effectively bankrupt in September 2023 and imposed swingeing budget cuts, as well as a 17.5 per cent council tax rise over two years. Bin collectors have been on strike over proposed pay cuts since March 2025, with rubbish frequently piling up in the street.

Despite currently holding 65 of 101 seats, polling suggests that Labour’s support is set to collapse, leaving it with as few as nine councillors and the authority under “no overall control”. The Greens, pro-Gaza independent candidates and Reform are all expected to make big advances.

Labour also faces a battering in Bradford, which it control with 46 of 90 seats. The Greens are pouring heavy resources into the West Yorkshire city with the hope of emerging as the biggest party.

Here comes Nigel

Reform looks certain to be the biggest overall winner in England, as it was in last year’s elections.

This reflects the party’s high poll numbers, but also the fact that it is starting virtually from scratch (in 2022, Reform picked up a mere 93 votes in Billesley, Birmingham, the only ward it contested in the city).

Farage will be anxious for a second year of large gains to demonstrate he is a credible contender for Downing Street in 2029.

Hayward, the polling expert, said: “The key question for Reform is whether they will perform to last year’s level or will they fall back somewhat.”

There are signs that former Labour voters are defecting in large numbers to Farage’s party in previous fiefdoms such as Sunderland, which has been run by the party for 52 years and where it still holds two thirds of the 75 council seats.

Reform swept to power last year in neighbouring County Durham and is aiming to gain a majority this week in Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson’s home city.

Barnsley, where Labour is defending 46 of its 63 seats, and Wakefield, where it holds 48 of 63, are typical of the councils where Reform is seeking to entrench its support across the former “Red Wall”.

Labour is also going backwards in Blackburn, where its overall majority of three is highly vulnerable to advances by pro-Gaza independents and Reform.

Polls suggest a “Black Country surge” could also propel Reform into power in Walsall, where the Tories hold 29 of 60 seats.

They could also make big advances in Sandwell, a historically rock-solid Labour territory, as well as in Dudley, where there is a minority Conservative administration.

Essex County Council, which covers Farage’s parliamentary seat of Clacton, has been run by the Conservatives for 29 years. But polling suggests that Reform could sweep to power, as well as winning Thurrock district council and making gains in others across the county.

It is also expected to emerge as the biggest party in Suffolk, where the Tories have an overall majority of 13, and in Norfolk, where polls suggest Reform could win more than 50 of the 84 seats because collapsing Conservative support.

Reform’s hopes in London are highest in Havering, a right-leaning area which is currently run by a residents’ association. One of the borough’s MPs, Andrew Rosindell, defected to Reform from the Conservatives in January.

The party will also hope for strong showing in the outer London boroughs of Bromley, Bexley and Hillingdon, which are all under Conservative control.

Lib Dems

The Liberal Democrats are on course for further gains following a decade of advances in local government.

They are aiming to capitalise on slumping Tory popularity in the Home Counties to become the biggest party in West Sussex and East Sussex, although Reform could make strong gains in both councils.

Davey’s party will hope to become the biggest party in Newcastle-upon-Tyne as Labour continues to lose its grip on the city. The Greens are also expected to pick up seats on the council, which is currently fragmented with a number of independent groupings.

The Lib Dems need just two gains to take overall control in Stockport, its strongest area of support in Greater Manchester. The party will also want to bolster its majority of one in Kingston-upon-Hull – but its ambitions could be stymied by Reform’s appeal in pro-Brexit East Yorkshire.

Where’s are England’s elections?

• 32 London boroughs
• Six county councils
• 18 unitary authorities, including the newly-created East Surrey and West Surrey
• 32 metropolitan districts
• 48  district councils

• Five London boroughs and Watford will elect local authority mayors

What about outside of England?

• Scottish Parliament – 129 seats (73 in constituencies, 56 from regional lists)

• Welsh Senedd – 96 seats (Six from each of 16 constituencies)