Britain is facing a migration crisis, but not the one you’ve been told about

Coming up in this week’s newsletter:

• Why politicians get immigration wrong…
• Is there a “right type” of immigration?
• Leasehold reform!

According to the ONS, Britain’s population is set to grow more slowly than previously expected over the next decade, with fewer migrants projected to move to the country and deaths starting to outnumber births as early as this year.

By 2034, the number of people living in the UK is projected to rise to 71 million, that is an increase of 1.7 million (2.5 per cent) from 2024.

However, it is lower than last year’s estimate of 72.2 million and reflects revised assumptions for lower migration amid tightened immigration controls by the UK government, as well as our falling birth rate (which I have written about here, here and here).

The ONS now estimates that the long-term average for international migration to Britain will be 230,000 a year. This is down 110,000 on previous estimates and reflects a sharp decrease since the post-Covid peak, which was fuelled by non-EU migrant workers who arrived after Brexit – often referred to as the “Boris wave”.

Population estimates matter more and more. Why? These figures are vital for politicians and economists to plan both tax and social policies. How many pensioners will there be? How many working-age taxpayers? What will the requirements for the NHS be?

Just as a sudden spike in new migrants from overseas would impact public services, a sudden departure would, too, because it would reduce the number of workers, mean fewer tax receipts and, potentially, increase borrowing.

And yet, our national conversation is still very much about “stopping” or “curbing migration”. If this were discussed in the context of introducing meaningful measures to support a rise in birth rates, that might make sense. But it is not.

So, really, the question ought to be: “What are you doing to make sure Britain has the right immigration?”

I recently spoke with the director of the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory, Madeleine Sumption. She has written a new book, which explains some of the conundrums inherent in the way immigration is discussed in British politics, called What is Immigration Policy For?

Firstly, she noted that there is a gap between rhetoric and reality when it comes to migration to Britain. This is in no small part because the issue of small boats crossing the Channel has become a touchstone for the entire conversation, which obscures the issues of legal and, even, necessary migration in some areas of the country and parts of the economy.

Public perception, Sumption notes, is often confused. “People say they want lower migration, but, if you ask them about individual categories, they actually support more liberal choices in many cases, except for asylum seekers. So basically, we’ve got the situation where the public wants liberal policies that deliver low levels of migration, and that’s impossible,” she explained.

Another issue is that there can be unintended consequences when changes are made to the immigration system. We saw this after Brexit when immigration rules were changed by the Conservatives, in no small part to mask the impact that EU workers leaving could have on Britain’s economy.

Boris Johnson’s government replaced EU free movement with a points-based immigration system in January 2021. This ended preferential treatment for EU citizens and relaxed rules for non-EU workers, leading to a record surge in migrants (aka the “Boris wave”) of over four million arrivals between 2021 and 2024, mostly from non-EU nations.

“It’s quite difficult to predict exactly what the immigration system is going to do,” Sumption told me. “This is because we’re talking about trying to govern the behaviour of hundreds of thousands or even millions of people. People don’t always respond in the way that’s predicted.”

Sumption gives the example of the fact that the number of care workers and students who arrived in Britain from non-EU countries after Brexit were “dramatically higher than the government had expected”.

Short of making arbitrary technocratic calculations, which may be wrong, there is no easy way to deal with this in real time.

And, even if you could do that, Sumption cautions that even though “the research evidence on the economic impacts of migration suggests that people going into highly-skilled, highly-paid jobs are going to be more economically beneficial than people coming into low-wage jobs from a public finances perspective, in the end, it’s all about pay.”

What if the workers we need for a period are lower-paid care workers, for example?

“These people may have a negative impact on the course of their lifetime on public finances, even if they’re having positive impacts elsewhere. For example, by keeping the care system afloat.”

As heated local elections approach this week, polls which are likely to see the Labour Party suffer across the country at the hands of both the Green Party of England and Wales and Reform UK, my various social media feeds are awash with video vox pops with voters voicing their views about immigration.

There can be no doubt that the issue of immigration has become shorthand in Britain for several different frustrations and social problems, which include but are not limited to the housing crisis, the cost of living crisis, and social cohesion.

The great shame, Sumption reflects, is that no politician was prepared to admit what academics knew: “The spike in care sector migrant workers was in part because there had been a broader failure in Westminster to address pay and working conditions, which meant that relaxing immigration rules became a way to solve the problem [with cheaper labour from other countries] without addressing its cause.”

But the cold, hard truth is that Britain is going to need some migration in the years to come. Divisive debates about immigration in this country won’t help us to work out what that looks like or help people who feel uncomfortable understand why it’s happening. What is certain, though, is that countries in the West will be competing over skilled workers to boost their economies if demographic trends, such as declining birth rates, continue.

Do you have an immigration story? I’d love to hear it vicky.spratt@theipaper.com

Housing crisis watch

There’s a lot going on in Britain’s housing market, including real-terms house price falls and incredibly stretched mortgage affordability across the country. I’ll write something on this soon.

In the meantime, however, in case you missed it, I sat down exclusively with housing and planning minister Matthew Pennycook last week after he gave a landmark speech outlining his plans to phase in a ban on new leasehold flats and, ultimately, move Britain to a system of commonhold ownership.

What does that mean? Read my write-up of his speech and our subsequent conversation here.

What I’ve been reading and listening to….

• Firstly, a shameless plug. I am presenting a brand new landmark series for The Rest Is Politics called “The Gen Z Story”. It’s about the issues young adults aged 14-29 face today. This is the first time Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart have let someone else into their studio to host the podcast. Please do have a listen and let us know what you think! 
• I am currently reading The Global Casino – how Wall Street gambles with people and the planet by economist Ann Pettifor. It’s a searing critique of our global financial systems.