Putin thinks Trump just handed him a much-needed path to victory

Putin even attempted declaring a ceasefire on Friday and Saturday, threatening a “massive missile strike” on Kyiv if Ukraine violated it.

But Volodymyr Zelensky said it was “utter cynicism” to “ask for a ceasefire in order to hold propaganda celebrations” while continuing to carry out strikes, with the Ukrainian president in turn announcing his own immediate, open-ended ceasefire.

Putin gives a speech each year, yet what can he say? He could announce – once again, and in defiance of the facts – the complete “liberation” of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, but he has no glorious victories to celebrate. He will probably invoke the sacrifices of the past to justify those of the present.

The Russian people and the country’s elite are feeling disaffected – and the Kremlin is looking for reasons to keep spirits up, as it grapples with challenges from Ukrainian strikes on oil refinery capacity to the stagnation of the economy.

It won’t appear in Putin’s speech, but Trump’s decision to withdraw 5,000 troops (just as a start) from Germany has provided that shot in the arm.

“A slap on the nose” is how the government newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta framed Trump’s decision, an apparent rebuke for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz after his critical comments on US strategy in the Gulf (or its absence).

Moscow is fully aware that the drawdown may never happen. They know Trump blows hot and cold, and one commentator noted that during his first presidency, he announced the withdrawal of 12,000 troops, but this had not been completed when his term ended, and was promptly rescinded.

The Kremlin is, however, predictably pleased by more evidence of a widening transatlantic split, especially as Trump is also threatening punitively to pull troops out of Italy (“hasn’t helped us at all”) and Spain (“is behaving terribly”).

The real impact of this move will be on Ukraine, though, not Europe.

It is not that there is any expectation of Nato’s imminent demise, but this is seen as further evidence of American impatience with European backsliding and self-indulgence. “Internal conflicts within the bloc are nothing new, and the cause isn’t the troop withdrawal or even disagreements over Iran,” continued Rossiiskaya Gazeta. “Europeans are simply unwilling to believe the inevitable: the Americans are unwilling and unwilling to fight for or in their stead.”

If anything, the Kremlin thinks that Trump’s additional imposition of 25 per cent tariffs on European cars and trucks is rather more significant, as it may lead to an all-out trade war with the EU.

The Kremlin doesn’t seem to see all this as making Europe more vulnerable to Russian attack. If anything, there is an awareness that any high-profile US pivot away from the continent only increases pressures to raise European defence spending. Besides, however bizarre it may seem to Westerners, for Putin and his fellow septuagenarian relics of the Cold War, there is a real belief that it is Europe that is making plans to attack Russia, not vice versa.

Any withdrawal of US forces, including the apparent decision to shelve plans to deploy long-range weapons to Germany, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, is instead being framed as a sign of America’s refusal to provide a backstop to such aggression. The Kremlin’s hope is that this will make Europe think twice about challenging Moscow.

Putin can temper his embarrassment at a bargain basement parade with renewed confidence over Ukraine, and the dream of having a real victory to celebrate next year. This may help the regime ignore or overrule those quiet voices arguing for an early end to hostilities, even at the expense of some of the Kremlin’s maximalist demands.

After all, Putin is not planning or wanting to wage a forever war. All he needs to be able to do is to outlast the Ukrainians’ capacity to keep fighting, and the Europeans’ to keep bankrolling them.

Zelensky is already being forced by political pressure to demobilise some of his troops. With European economies battered by the Gulf crisis, and the USA and EU falling out, it becomes easier for Putin to tell himself that victory is just over the horizon. And so he has no reason to talk peace.