The Russian threat from the sea we’re not talking about

“The Russians have only got so many warships, and so one option to keep civilian vessels protected from the militaries of an adversary is to pop a couple of missile containers on the ship to defend itself,” William Freer, research fellow in national security at the Council on Geostrategy, told The i Paper.

In the event of a full-scale war with Russia, the first hours could see Moscow launch a barrage of missile strikes at key British targets from vessels including container ships in the North Sea and Atlantic.

Freer said this was definitely an increased threat, pointing to Britain’s threadbare defences, and warning that Russia “could load up a bunch of the shadow fleet with containerised missiles at the outset of a conflict, launch a wave of missile strikes at military targets in Portsmouth and Plymouth, and there’s not very much we’re able to do about it”.

Dr Sidharth Kaushal, Senior Research Fellow in Sea Power at the Royal United Services Institute, said that even if one such vessel were able to escape identification and launch an attack, it would have “considerable” consequences.

Civilian ships are an arm of the Russian state

The threat posed to Britain by civilian ships is only expected to increase, following a 30 per cent rise in Russian vessels threatening UK waters over the past two years.

Russia is suspected of deploying drones hidden on ships near European airports and infrastructure and conducting deep-sea missions near UK cables. Only last week suspicious drone activity was reported near drilling platforms in the North Sea.

Civilian ships are becoming an increasingly vital part of Russian naval warfare. Moscow updated its maritime doctrine in 2022 to “allow for the inclusion in the Navy of civilian ships and crews in times of war”. Already reports suggest Russian intelligence officers have been stationed on its shadow fleet.

Alexander Lord, lead Europe and Eurasia analyst at Sibylline risk intelligence company , told The i Paper that civilian vessels offer Russia both “plausible deniability” and the advantage that “the fleet is dispersed and at any one point the Royal Navy or Norwegian Navy won’t know which container ships are being used for hybrid operations or not – it reduces the likelihood of detection”.

A recent report by Sibylline noted that: “Russia’s maritime doctrine underscores in the clearest terms that maritime power can be exerted not only by naval vessels but the full range of civilian vessels during times of war – which, we assess, also includes during times of hybrid war.”

As UK-Russian relations deteriorate and military leaders warn of a potential war in coming years, Moscow is likely to capitalise on boxed missiles as a potential route to exploit an already vulnerable Britain.

The Club-K container ship missile

Russia’s Club K cruise missile system, a modified version of the Kalibr, is nearly indistinguishable from a standard shipping container. At any moment, millions of 20ft or 40ft freight containers are being transported around the world via ship, truck or rail.

The Club-K, which is sold for $10m-$20m, stays disguised as a civilian asset until the last moment, before revealing a vertical launching system (VLS) with four cruise missiles.

“Q-ships”, or warships disguised as commercial vessels, are nothing new in conflict. Russia has for years had the capacity to deploy container ship missiles.

But as expensive wars in Ukraine and the Middle East highlight the need for more low-cost munitions, prepackaged missiles that can be fitted into commercial ships could revolutionise naval warfare.

Western adversaries have expressed interest in purchasing containerised missile systems from Russia. Some, including Iran, already possess their own.

Concerns flared after Christmas when a Chinese cargo vessel loaded with containers of missile launchers, radars and close-in weapon systems was spotted at a shipyard in Shanghai.

Freer said the approach was popular because shipping containers are “so ubiquitous” and because if missiles are dispersed in containers “it’s very hard for an adversary to go and find them”.

Drones hidden in containers

However, there were limits to the threat. For a start, cruise missiles must be stored and maintained in temperature-controlled military facilities, with frequent checks, according to Dr Kaushal. “Otherwise you’re risking something going wrong, and frankly, a disaster. So you wouldn’t expect these to be left in ports or on ships until the point where a crisis was escalating to a conflict.”

He added: “If you’re loading up the vessel with a huge number of missiles, that’s something that national and Alliance-level intelligence capabilities should be able to pick up.”

Furthermore, this scenario “assumes the Russians want to pick a fight, which they’re not currently in a good position to do”, said Freer. In addition, this would be “a one-way trip for those crews”.

“That’s an enormous an enormous risk to take. You also then need people on board to know how to handle it: the sensors, the missiles… They need systems around it to be able to find targets, and lots of other complex military architecture that go into making the missile as accurate and effective as it is. But given the UK’s lack of missile defences it is certainly a vulnerable one for us in particular.”

Dr Kaushal added: “There is still the challenge, though, that potentially a small number of containers, which doesn’t trip the interest of national intelligence services, might be sufficient to overwhelm a military facility with insufficient point defence.”

One-way attack drones launched from shipping containers could be arguably more viable than cruise missiles. Ukraine’s audacious Operation Spider’s Web last year, when drones hidden in containers were secretly transported into Russia in advance before deploying en masse to hit airbases, showed the damage low-cost weapons can wreak.

Unlike cruise missiles, many UAVs can be packed in a single container in a more nondescript manner, for an extended period of time without the need for specific conditions, making a one-off surprise attack with containerised Geran drones at the outset of a conflict a distinct possibility. “Drones, in that respect, are a much bigger problem than cruise missiles,” Dr Kaushal said.

“Russians are learning, and they are adapting themselves. They are leveraging the battlefield in the Black Sea, and they will be applying those lessons elsewhere,” said Lord.

Retired Air Marshal Edward Stringer said that “given what we’ve seen, given that we know Soviet special forces used to target our key military with special forces, but now special forces are drones that can be remotely controlled from anywhere, as they were in Spider’s Web”.

Already there have been reports of unattributed drones around airbases in Britain, Europe and the US. While their origins are unclear, in some instances the finger has pointed squarely at Russia. Furthermore, every day, an enormous number of containers enter Britain through UK ports, making it hard to monitor what is coming in.

Stringer said that a drone bank could be concealed in a container driven in on a truck and easily “create a spectacle”.

“Someone could create an unattributable drone bank somewhere on a truck that just has to be driven out by someone who doesn’t know what they’re doing and remotely controlled from wherever, such as Iran. All you have to do is get away with that once and create a spectacle. Why wouldn’t you?

“I’m not saying they’ve done it. But it’s plausible enough … If it can be thought and it can be done, someone will probably try and do it.”