Starmer’s election nightmare is now real

The main benefactor so far has been Reform, which has gained almost 300 councillors – a third of all seats declared – in seats across the Midlands and North of England.

While the Liberal Democrats and Greens have made gains, the success of both parties will be clearer later on Friday when more seats in London are announced.

Reform sweeping up and Greens squeezing Labour’s vote

Councils who declared results overnight into Friday are in areas where Reform were always expected to do well and the early picture is certainly favourable for Nigel Farage’s party.

Reform has made significant gains across the country – in places like Dudley, in the Midlands, and Basildon in Essex – but both councils demonstrate the vote share is still being split by the main parties and Reform has not done enough to win control.

While early results indicate gains for Reform, what is not necessarily obvious from the headline wins is the fact that Labour’s vote share is also being eaten away at by the Green Party.

The Greens and Lib Dems may have not made as many gains as they had hoped at this stage, support for both parties has been at the expense of Labour and left the party unable to defend seats in many areas.

Labour jitters as the party suffers losses 

Critics of Starmer have already been out on the airwaves saying the Labour Party has to consider a change of leader if the results continue to be this bad.

The Labour Party has suffered losses in councils all over the country – ranging from Hartlepool in the North East to Wandsworth in south London – indicating it is losing votes from across the spectrum, with Starmer’s unpopularity a significant challenge.

And if that isn’t bad enough for Starmer, there are difficult results yet to come when the Scottish and Welsh parliaments are declared as well as more results across London, where Labour is expected to get a battering.

The SNP is expected to win in Scotland and Labour is on track to lose Wales – with Plaid Cymru and Reform the main winners.

Labour looking for signs of hope – but it will probably get worse

Labour sources are pointing to the party holding Lincoln, where Reform was expected to make further gains, Reading, which remained Labour despite losses for the party due to only some of the seats being up for grabs, and Oxford, where the anti-Labour vote seems to have been split by Greens and the Lib Dems.

And they are insisting that it would be a mistake to interpret these results – whatever happens – as being a sign of what could be to come in the next general election.

Polling guru Sir John Curtice told the BBC that, if Labour continues to lose council seats at the rate it has overnight, the overall loss could be around 1200 seats.

While bad, this result would not be as catastrophic as some in Labour had feared.

But that does not take into account the fact that there are still significant seats to come in London, where Labour is threatened by the Greens, and symbolic results in Wales.

Labour is expected to lose control of the Welsh parliament, the Senedd, for the first time since the late nineties.

Despite Reform’s early success, Curtice said. it’s not quite hitting its target of 30 per cent of the vote, and he said the Greens were struggling to convert votes into seats so far.