Labour’s 100-year reign in Wales is over

With Sinn Féin leading the Executive in Northern Ireland and the SNP’s John Swinney expected to hold on in Scotland, Starmer now faces the prospect of nationalist first ministers in each of the three devolved nations simultaneously – a scenario with no modern precedent.

No party won an outright majority of 49 of the 96 Senedd seats but Plaid Cymru became the largest party. Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth will need support from other parties to form a government.

The party won 43 seats under Wales’ new proportional voting system, ahead of Reform UK on 34 seats. Labour was reduced to 9 seats – its worst result in a devolved election since the Senedd was established in 1999, and the end of a dominance in Welsh politics stretching back more than a century.

Morgan said she would step down as Welsh Labour leader after losing her seat in Ceredigion Penfro but did not lay the blame at Starmer’s door, saying he was “not on the ballot”.

“I am taking responsibility and I am resigning,” she said.

As to what all this means for the future of the United Kingdom, Professor John Tonge, head of Politics and Communication Studies at the University of Liverpool, told BBC Breakfast on Friday that “the long-term future of the UK may be in some jeopardy”. However, he was quick to add that was “a lot further down the track.”

The critical caveat is that a Plaid-led Wales is constitutionally a very different proposition to an SNP-majority Scotland.

The SNP has pledged to bring forward a vote on its first sitting day to approve a section 30 order – the mechanism required to hold a legally binding independence referendum. Plaid has made no such commitment.

Unlike in 2021, the party did not propose holding a referendum in the first term of a Plaid-led government, pledging instead to undertake preparatory work and lay “the foundations for a future white paper on Welsh independence.”

The power to legislate for such a referendum, in any case, sits solely with Westminster – as confirmed by a 2022 UK Supreme Court ruling.

What is less ambiguous is the likely temperature of the relationship between Cardiff Bay and Downing Street.

Ap Iorwerth has been characteristically direct about what his election means for that dynamic. In an interview with The i Paper in March, he said: “I’m sure I’ll be seen as something of a nuisance in a way the current First Minister isn’t.”

The arithmetic of government may also complicate matters. Plaid is expected to need Labour’s support to command a majority in the Senedd, which would give Welsh Labour a degree of leverage over ap Iorwerth’s programme – and could constrain the pace at which he moves on constitutional questions.

A party that has just suffered the worst result in its history is unlikely to be in a hurry to accelerate the independence debate.

But ap Iorwerth has made clear he intends to use the platform regardless. “Independence comes as part of a journey,” he told The i Paper in March. “A journey on which I’m eager to show leadership and bring people with me.”

YouGov polling from January put support for Welsh independence at just 26 per cent, with 54 per cent opposed. The destination remains distant, but the direction of travel, after today, is rather clearer.

Despite their strong showing elsewhere in Britain, the Greens only won two seats, with 6.8 per cent of the vote. The Lib Dems won just one seat, with 4.4 per cent.