The numbers that show why Trump will struggle to restart his war

The diplomatic war of words will worry some in the White House who believe a return to war could put further pressure on US stockpiles.

US pilots at extra risk

The depletion of key weapons is likely to be a “factor” in whether Trump acts on repeated threats to resume bombing of Iran, said Mark Cancian, a former US Army colonel who co-authored the study.

“I think it would be a factor because of concerns regarding future conflicts, particularly China and the Western Pacific,” he said. “We could continue operations if the fighting restarted [with Iran], but one area I think would be a particular concern, where the US might actually run out is THAAD.”

Senior figures in the Trump administration such as Vice President JD Vance have reportedly raised serious concerns over weapons depletion, while War Secretary Pete Hegseth faced questions over the issue at a congressional hearing on Tuesday.

Democrat Senator Mark Kelly said on Sunday that classified briefings had revealed serious shortages and raised concerns about US readiness for future conflicts. “It’s shocking how deep we have gone into these magazines,” he said.

The report by CSIS showed a shift toward cheaper, more plentiful weaponry as a result of the diminished US arsenal, requiring US bombers to be closer to their targets and take greater risk. Cancian said the US could seek to rely on cheaper munitions but “the big capability you lose is range”. While a Tomahawk has a range of more than 1,000 miles, with cheaper bombs, US pilots would “have to get right up” to the target.

The Pentagon is likely to seek to influence any future action to safeguard stocks, said the retired serviceman. “I’m sure that the Pentagon will raise it as an issue,” he said. “They won’t say ‘you can’t do this’. But they will put it in the construct ‘if you do this, then this will be the effect.’”

Cancian added that long lead times to replace weapons were unlikely to be shortened by much in the coming years, despite Trump’s plans to scale up production.

Michael Mulroy, a former senior war department official who served under Trump, agreed that depleted weapons would be a factor in whether the US resumes the war with Iran. “We have other weapons, but they are more of a risk to use,” he said, warning that a new approach was needed.
“We essentially manufacture for peace time activities. That has to change. Our adversaries are watching.”

According to the New York Times, the reports of drained US munitions stocks has also caused anxiety from European allies. These allies have bought billions of dollars worth of munitions on behalf of Ukraine and are concerned that their orders will be delayed in order to replenish US arsenals.

However, Pentagon officials have reportedly offered assurances to European allies that their stocks are sufficient to fulfil these orders.

Iran’s arsenal still a threat

US weaponry problems may be compounded by new intelligence assessments that suggest the vast majority of Iran’s missiles and launchers survived bombardment, despite claims from Trump and his senior officials to have largely destroyed them, which was a central war aim.

Iran retains access to 30 of 33 key missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, according to a New York Times report citing US officials, with 90 per cent of storage and launch facilities assessed to be “partially or fully operational”. These missiles could threaten American warships and oil tankers travelling through the vital waterway.

Iran still has at least 70 per cent of its stockpile of ballistic missiles, believed to number in the thousands, and 75 per cent of its missile launchers, the report found. Similar figures were reported by the Washington Post last week, also citing US military officials.

Iranian officials have claimed that their military capabilities are even greater than the reports suggest.

Abbas Araghchi, the Islamic Republic’s foreign minister, said on X last Friday that “the CIA is wrong. Our missile inventory and launcher capacity are not at 75 per cent compared to Feb 28. The correct figure is 120 per cent. As for our readiness to defend our people: 1,000 per cent”.

The findings are in stark contrast to earlier claims from the US and Israel, which claimed to have taken out almost two-thirds of Iran’s launchers by late March.

Writing on Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump attacked the reports, saying: “When the Fake News says that the Iranian enemy is doing well, Militarily, against us, it’s virtual TREASON in that it is such a false, and even preposterous, statement.

“They have no Navy, their Air Force is gone, all Technology is gone, their ‘leaders’ are no longer with us, and the Country is an Economic Disaster.

“These are American cowards that are rooting against our Country,” he added.

Joel Valdez, the acting Pentagon press secretary, also responded strongly to the findings in a statement, labelling the New York Times and other publications “disgraceful”, adding that they “are acting as public relations agents for the Iranian regime in order to paint Operation Epic Fury as anything other than a historic accomplishment”.

But Mulroy said the assessment was realistic and likely to be a result of the fortifications around Iran’s underground facilities. “Our intelligence community’s estimates are likely accurate. There may be truth to these missile cities under extraordinary hard granite rock,” he said.

Tal Inbar, an Israeli missile expert and specialist on Iranian weapons, also backed the assessment.

“Most of the missiles were in underground facilities that bombs did not penetrate,” he said. “They collapse earth and rocks, blocking the entrance to the site. Remove the debris and everything inside is intact.”