Donald Trump should think twice about moving state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles to the Middle East as he tries to ramp up pressure on Iran, experts have warned.
US Central Command has requested the deployment of long-range Dark Eagle missiles to the Middle East, according to a report.
Centcom suggested the move was necessary because Iran had moved its missile launchers out of the range of the existing American systems deployed in the region, the advanced Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), Bloomberg reported.
While the PrSM can hit targets up to 500km (300 miles) away, the Dark Eagle has a range of 3,500km (2,000 miles), meaning the new missile would allow the US to hit Iranian assets that have been moved beyond the range of the PrSM.
If the request is approved, this would mark the first time that a land-based hypersonic missile has been used by the US military in combat, aimed at further projecting American power in the region.
A hypersonic missile can travel at over five times the speed of sound, making it much harder to intercept. The Dark Eagle’s exact capabilities are secret but it is designed to glide to its target while manoeuvring to avoid interception.
Dark Eagle deployment could escalate the war
A deployment could be a means of increasing pressure on Iran as a fragile ceasefire rolls on and peace negotiations continue to bear little fruit.
The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes, has remained largely closed since the conflict began owing to Iranian attacks and a US blockade. Now Trump is reportedly weighing options for renewed military action against Iran.
“Trump is routinely trying to signal strength to an Iranian regime and to his people that no one is really believing. In much the same way that Trump was heralding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, when he is the sole reason for it being shut in the first place and it was already open before he got involved,” Louis Bromfield of the University of Swansea said.
“The deployment of hypersonic weapons is likely to be seen as maintaining US ability to continue to strike within Iran if negotiations falter,” James Pattison, professor of politics at the University of Manchester, told The i Paper.
“There are strong incentives for the Trump administration to seek continue to seek a resolution to the conflict, given the broader effects of the conflict on oil prices and inflation, and the upcoming mid-term elections.”
Pattison added that the deployment of Dark Eagles to the region could be seen in Tehran as an escalation to the conflict.
“Since these weapons are often perceived to carry nuclear warheads – although not in this case – it could be perceived, even if incorrectly, as a major move to fulfil Trump’s threat to annihilate the Iranian civilisation,” he said. Trump threatened to end Iran’s civilisation last month as he ramped up pressure on them to cease fire.
Dr Sidharth Kaushal, Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told The i Paper that the deployment of the missiles could either be interpreted as a threat to Iran’s leadership, or as an “oblique signal to opponents like China and Russia about what US capabilities can do”.
If Iran perceived this deployment as an escalation, this could prompt a resumption of hostilities, including renewed Iranian strikes in countries all over the Middle East.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei yesterday issued a statement vowing to defend Tehran’s nuclear programme and pledged to prevent “the enemy’s abuses of the waterway”.
The need for Dark Eagle is unclear
Furthermore, it is unclear exactly what the US hopes to achieve in Iran by deploying this missile, considering it has already claimed air superiority over much of Iran.
Dr Sidharth Kaushal, Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told The i Paper: “Given the extent of the air superiority which the US enjoys over Iran, it is not immediately obvious what a small number of hypersonics would add since the US has multiple means of striking both time-sensitive and hardened targets in Iran using fixed-win air assets, and most operationally relevant fleeting targets are not valuable enough to justify the use of Dark Eagle.”
Dr Dafydd Townley of the University of Portsmouth said the Dark Eagle missile was “unlikely to be a game changer” in the conflict because “the US claims that it has air superiority over Iran and can therefore conduct sorties with little risk.”
In addition, it is unclear whether the missile is even fully operational yet. In August 2024, the system completed its first successful “end-to-end” test flight. However, in some tests, the missile was plagued by launcher, launch sequence and missile production quality issues, according to a report from the US Government Accountability Office last year.
The Pentagon testing office has also said it will not have enough data to evaluate Dark Eagle’s combat effectiveness until early 2027.
Missiles are expensive – and the public will not be pleased
In addition, the missiles come with a hefty price tag, each costing an estimated $15 million at a time when Washington has already sunk billions on the war in Iran.
Deploying the missiles is “incredibly expensive and will mean that the cost of the war to the US will increase even further, placing the administration under greater pressure from Congress”, said Dr Townley.
The Iran war has proved dismally unpopular with the American public. Trump’s personal approval rating sank to a record low of 34 per cent since his return to power, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
“Perhaps the Trump administration sees this escalation in military tech as a shortcut to ending the war, but the war is deeply unpopular with American citizens and the cost of living impact is starting to drag his approval ratings through the already low floor,” Bromfield said.
Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities think-tank in Washington, told Responsible Statecraft the deployment “suggests that the Pentagon has lost all perspective”.
“Iran is not an existential threat, and the United States should not be expending its highest-end missiles there no matter what,” Kavanagh said.
Kelly Grieco, Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center, wrote on X: “How do you know it is defence budget season in Washington? An unnecessary push to deploy a not-yet-fully-operational hypersonic missile against Iran. Nothing says ‘fund me’ like first use, I guess.”