The numbers that show why Trump will struggle to restart his war

The Iran war has depleted America’s weapons stockpile, leaving Donald Trump vulnerable and constraining his ability to resume hostilities, military analysts say.

The majority of Iran’s missiles and launchers, meanwhile, are believed to remain intact.

Research from US military think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found that many of the most advanced offensive and defensive munitions in the US arsenal were burned through during six weeks of high intensity warfare, which could leave the Pentagon short in future conflicts.

More than 1,000 Tomahawk and JASSM long-range cruise missiles were used in the bombardment, almost a third of the total available, while more than half of Patriot and THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) missiles were deployed. The timeline to replace the munitions is about four years, according to CSIS.

The US President has called the shaky ceasefire between the two adversaries “unbelievably weak” and on “massive life support”, with negotiations proving difficult. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman accused the US of being “unreasonable” and “one-sided” with its most recent demands, after Trump branded Iran’s response to a previous peace proposal “totally unacceptable”.

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The diplomatic war of words will worry some in the White House who believe a return to war could put further pressure on US stockpiles.

US pilots at extra risk

The depletion of key weapons is likely to be a “factor” in whether Trump acts on repeated threats to resume bombing of Iran, said Mark Cancian, a former US Army colonel who co-authored the study.

“I think it would be a factor because of concerns regarding future conflicts, particularly China and the Western Pacific,” he said. “We could continue operations if the fighting restarted [with Iran], but one area I think would be a particular concern, where the US might actually run out is THAAD.”

AT SEA - FEBRUARY 28: (EDITOR???S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party organization and may not adhere to Getty Images??? editorial policy.) In this handout photo provided by the U.S. Navy, Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Delbert D. Black (DDG 119) fires a Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) in support of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026 in the Mediterranean Sea. (Photo by U.S. Navy via Getty Images)
Tomahawk cruise missiles have a range of up to 1,000 miles but can take up to two years to produce (Photo: U.S. Navy/Getty Images)

Senior figures in the Trump administration such as Vice President JD Vance have reportedly raised serious concerns over weapons depletion, while War Secretary Pete Hegseth faced questions over the issue at a congressional hearing on Tuesday.

Democrat Senator Mark Kelly said on Sunday that classified briefings had revealed serious shortages and raised concerns about US readiness for future conflicts. “It’s shocking how deep we have gone into these magazines,” he said.

The report by CSIS showed a shift toward cheaper, more plentiful weaponry as a result of the diminished US arsenal, requiring US bombers to be closer to their targets and take greater risk. Cancian said the US could seek to rely on cheaper munitions but “the big capability you lose is range”. While a Tomahawk has a range of more than 1,000 miles, with cheaper bombs, US pilots would “have to get right up” to the target.

The Pentagon is likely to seek to influence any future action to safeguard stocks, said the retired serviceman. “I’m sure that the Pentagon will raise it as an issue,” he said. “They won’t say ‘you can’t do this’. But they will put it in the construct ‘if you do this, then this will be the effect.’”

INFLIGHT - AUGUST 14: In this handout photo provided by the U.S. Air Force, the B-2 flies over Edwards Air Force Base August 14, 2003 over California. The B-2 Global Power Bomber Combined Test Force dropped two newly upgraded 5,000-pound GBU-28 bombs for the first time. (Photo by U.S. Air Force/Getty Images)
Cheaper, more abundant ordnance would mean that US bombers would “have to get right up” to their target, says former US Army colonel Mark Cancian (Photo by U.S. Air Force/Getty Images)

Cancian added that long lead times to replace weapons were unlikely to be shortened by much in the coming years, despite Trump’s plans to scale up production.

Michael Mulroy, a former senior war department official who served under Trump, agreed that depleted weapons would be a factor in whether the US resumes the war with Iran. “We have other weapons, but they are more of a risk to use,” he said, warning that a new approach was needed.
“We essentially manufacture for peace time activities. That has to change. Our adversaries are watching.”

According to the New York Times, the reports of drained US munitions stocks has also caused anxiety from European allies. These allies have bought billions of dollars worth of munitions on behalf of Ukraine and are concerned that their orders will be delayed in order to replenish US arsenals.

However, Pentagon officials have reportedly offered assurances to European allies that their stocks are sufficient to fulfil these orders.

Iran’s arsenal still a threat

US weaponry problems may be compounded by new intelligence assessments that suggest the vast majority of Iran’s missiles and launchers survived bombardment, despite claims from Trump and his senior officials to have largely destroyed them, which was a central war aim.

Iran retains access to 30 of 33 key missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, according to a New York Times report citing US officials, with 90 per cent of storage and launch facilities assessed to be “partially or fully operational”. These missiles could threaten American warships and oil tankers travelling through the vital waterway.

TEHRAN, IRAN - FEBRUARY 11: Missiles produced by Iran's armed forces are displayed near a row of Iranian flags during commemorations to mark the anniversary of the 1979 Iranian Revolution on February 11, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. In that year, Ruhollah Khomeini led an overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979 and established himself as Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
Iranian missiles along the Strait of Hormuz could threaten US warships and oil tankers (Photo: Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

Iran still has at least 70 per cent of its stockpile of ballistic missiles, believed to number in the thousands, and 75 per cent of its missile launchers, the report found. Similar figures were reported by the Washington Post last week, also citing US military officials.

Iranian officials have claimed that their military capabilities are even greater than the reports suggest.

Abbas Araghchi, the Islamic Republic’s foreign minister, said on X last Friday that “the CIA is wrong. Our missile inventory and launcher capacity are not at 75 per cent compared to Feb 28. The correct figure is 120 per cent. As for our readiness to defend our people: 1,000 per cent”.

The findings are in stark contrast to earlier claims from the US and Israel, which claimed to have taken out almost two-thirds of Iran’s launchers by late March.

ISTANBUL, TURKEY - JANUARY 30: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi gives a statement at the Ritz Hotel as he meets Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, on January 30, 2026 in Istanbul, Turkey. Protests that began in Tehran on December 28 over worsening economic conditions escalated into one of the deadliest anti-government uprisings in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iranian authorities say at least 3,117 people were killed, while human rights groups estimate the toll could reach 6,000 or more and warn it may rise once internet blackouts are lifted. U.S. President Donald Trump has sent an armada of U.S. warships toward Iran and warned Tehran that time was running out to negotiate a deal on its nuclear program. This week, The European Union agreed to list Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. (Photo by Burak Kara/Getty Images)
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi has claimed that the Islamic Republic’s missile inventory and launcher capacity is at 120 per cent (Photo: Burak Kara/Getty Images)

Writing on Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump attacked the reports, saying: “When the Fake News says that the Iranian enemy is doing well, Militarily, against us, it’s virtual TREASON in that it is such a false, and even preposterous, statement.

“They have no Navy, their Air Force is gone, all Technology is gone, their ‘leaders’ are no longer with us, and the Country is an Economic Disaster.

“These are American cowards that are rooting against our Country,” he added.

Joel Valdez, the acting Pentagon press secretary, also responded strongly to the findings in a statement, labelling the New York Times and other publications “disgraceful”, adding that they “are acting as public relations agents for the Iranian regime in order to paint Operation Epic Fury as anything other than a historic accomplishment”.

But Mulroy said the assessment was realistic and likely to be a result of the fortifications around Iran’s underground facilities. “Our intelligence community’s estimates are likely accurate. There may be truth to these missile cities under extraordinary hard granite rock,” he said.

Tal Inbar, an Israeli missile expert and specialist on Iranian weapons, also backed the assessment.

“Most of the missiles were in underground facilities that bombs did not penetrate,” he said. “They collapse earth and rocks, blocking the entrance to the site. Remove the debris and everything inside is intact.”

Inside Trump’s travelling circus in China featuring Musk but no Melania

Donald Trump’s state visit to China is one of his most important foreign policy moments during his entire presidency, but he headed to Beijing with some unusual guests aboard Air Force One.

Trump arrived in Beijing early on Thursday morning (UK time), shaking hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping and inspecting Chinese troops on a red carpet in front of the Great Hall of the People.

Trump called Xi a great leader and friend during the welcome ceremonies.

“You’re a great leader, ⁠sometimes people don’t like me saying it, but I say it anyway,” Trump told Xi as they sat face-to-face.

“There are those who say this may be the biggest summit ever … It’s an honour to be with you. It’s an honour to be your friend and the relationship between China and the USA is going to be better than ever before.”

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People. (Picture: Alex Wong/Getty Images)
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People. (Picture: Alex Wong/Getty Images)

What is the purpose of Trump’s trip?

With his poll numbers slumping as of late, Trump is aiming to secure economic wins, maintain a fragile trade truce and navigate thorny issues such as the Iran war and arms sales to Taiwan.

This week’s meetings will provide plenty of face ‌time between Trump and Xi.

After the talks at The Great Hall of the People, they will tour the UNESCO heritage site Temple of Heaven and attend a state banquet on Thursday, before taking tea and lunch together on Friday, according to the White House.

Both sides are eager to maintain a trade truce struck last October in South Korea, in which Trump suspended triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods and Xi backed away from choking global supplies of rare earths.

“The trip to China is, in part, a trade mission – probably in large part.  It’s also a distraction from Trump’s war with Iran,” said Dr John Hart, former head of the department of political science at the Australian National University and a specialist on American government.

“China has an incentive to get Trump to lower current tariffs. I doubt that they will have to yield that much in return. But there’s no chance that China will change its position on Taiwan in order to secure better trading arrangements with the US,” Hart said.

For ‌Xi, American arms sales to Taiwan, the democratically governed island claimed by China, will ⁠be a top priority. China reiterated on Wednesday its strong opposition to the sales.

US President Donald Trump meets with China’s President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People. (Picture: Mark Schiefelbein/AP)
US President Donald Trump meets with China’s President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People. (Picture: Mark Schiefelbein/AP)

Who is attending the trip with the US president?

It’s not often that a US president leaves his wife at home on such an important trip, but takes his friend-turned-enemy-turned-friend again Elon Musk with him.

But Trump has never done anything by the book, and this trip is no different.

The value of the passengers aboard Air Force One as it landed in Beijing was well over a billion dollars.

Alongside Trump himself and cabinet members, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, were a crew of business titans, including Musk and Apple CEO Tim Cook.

Members of the US delegation including Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Elon Musk and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, listen to the US national anthem. (Picture: Mark Schiefelbein/AP)
Members of the US delegation including Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Elon Musk and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, listen to the US national anthem. (Picture: Mark Schiefelbein/AP)

Joining them is Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang, a late addition who came aboard during a refuelling stop in Alaska en route to the Chinese capital at Trump’s request.

In a Truth Social post, Trump slammed reporting from US TV network CNBC saying Huang had not been invited.

“In actuality, Jensen is currently on Air Force One and, unless I ask him to leave, which is highly unlikely, CNBC’s reporting is incorrect or, as they say in politics, FAKE NEWS!” Trump said.

Also on the trip are Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump and film director Brett Ratner, reportedly to scout locations for his upcoming movie Rush Hour 4, starring Chinese action star Jackie Chan and American comedian Chris Tucker.

“(Lara Trump) could just be accompanying her husband (Trump’s son Eric), but it’s probably more to do with the Trump family business and the deals that they want to do with China … I wouldn’t expect that she’d be dispensing advice to the President on how to handle China,” said Hart.

Is Trump there for dealing or diplomacy?

Trump’s foreign policy reputation has taken a battering in recent times thanks to the war in Iran.

“The emphasis would surely be on deal-making. Trump is not a diplomat. He doesn’t have the knowledge or skill to do diplomacy. And, judging by his appalling management of the war in Iran, he has little patience for diplomacy,” said Hart.

“I can’t see that he’s  going to get any deal with China over Taiwan. That’s the major problem in US-China relations and Trump just doesn’t have the ability to negotiate that particular problem, nor does China have any reason to change its position on Taiwan.”

Will there be any MAGA backlash?

Trump has not always been so warn and effusive about China. In the past, he has frequently accused China of “ripping off” the US  in trade deals, and was also scathing of the country’s handling of the Covid pandemic.

“We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country and that’s what they’re doing. It’s the greatest theft in the history of the world,” he told a campaign rally in 2016.

Anti-China rhetoric was a big part of Trump’s early political campaigning, and now some of his own supporters, like pro-Trump TV host Laura Ingraham, sounded the alarm when reports emerged that Trump and Xi were considering a deal to allow China to invest $1 trillion into the US, largely to build factories.

In response, former congresswoman Marjorie Taylor-Greene, who was once a staunch ally of Trump’s before they had a bitter falling out, tweeted: “I’m old enough to remember when MAGA was demanding China not be allowed to own any land in America. But MAGA is whatever Trump says it is, according to him, so now it’s for foreign wars and China. Shocking.”

Choosing a mortgage has become a gamble

The mortgage market has always involved an element of risk – if you get a long fix and rates drop, you may end up paying more over a longer period and vice versa – if you opt for a short deal and rates rise, you could get a bill hike.

The recent conflict in the Middle East has upped the stakes. Mortgage rates always fluctuate a little, but the Iran war has made it even harder to predict what will happen next.

In gambling terms, we’ve gone from playing the penny slots on Brighton Pier to blackjack in a Las Vegas casino.

Since the start of the conflict this spring, average fixed mortgage rates – which most households have – have flown up by a percentage point, equivalent to hundreds of pounds in many situations, although they have recently dropped marginally.

If these higher rates were set in stone, buyers and borrowers would in some senses have it easier as they’d be in the same boat as everyone else – having to suck it up and pay the more expensive bills, or borrow less. But the unpredictability is jeopardising the situation.

First time buyers and homeowners don’t know if in the next few months or years, their choice of mortgage could ultimately mean they’ve locked in lower bills or in fact they’ll end up paying thousands more, should rates drop.

There are two main type of mortgages. The first are fixed loans – the mainstay of the market – which are priced primarily on swap rates, which go up or down based on trader predictions for where the Bank of England base rate goes in the future.

At the moment, the base rate stands at 3.75 per cent, but traders expect potentially two rises in the medium term, and so most lenders are pricing their mortgages at 4.5 per cent or higher – to allow for a profit margin on top.

Alongside fixed mortgages, there are variable mortgages too, of which one sub-type – the tracker – is providing borrowers with a conundrum.

This sort of deal offers a rate that directly follows the Bank’s base rate, plus a margin on top. At the moment, the cheapest of these sits at bank rate plus an additional 0.19 per cent.

But the key element posing a financial dilemma for many is that the Bank of England hasn’t actually upped its base rate yet. In fact, some economists don’t think it will at all. As a result, these tracker mortgages currently provide a sizeable saving on fixed rates, with some even being below 4 per cent.

It means that the gamblers are able to go for a tracker, and cut hundreds from their monthly bills.

If the economists who expect no change are right, these people will have backed the winning horse. Yet, if the conflict gets worse – perhaps worse than anyone expects – and the bank rate is hiked, they could end up paying much more than those on fixed rates.

These people will pay more now, but if rates climb dramatically, will be protected.

It’s essentially a game of stick or twist – but with a lot of money on the line.

It’s hard to predict what happens next because we are reliant on the actions of politicians who have shown time and time again how volatile they can be. It’s also difficult to state how much of an impact this is likely to have on the property market over the next few months.

It’s already hard enough for those refinancing to know which mortgage to get, but for those who are are trying to get on the ladder, the volatility is making it even harder to know how much they can afford. This makes deciding which properties to view and target a near impossible task.

For those that do buy or remortgage, the next few months could be nervy. Unlike most gambles, it may not be clear for months who has made the right decision.

Why Harry has entered Britain’s increasingly toxic debate on Gaza and antisemitism

The Duke of Sussex has spoken out about the “deeply troubling” rise in antisemitism in the UK.

Harry stressed the importance of “legitimate protest”, adding that he felt compelled to speak out because in his view standing on the sidelines allows “hate and extremism to flourish unchecked”.

, he referenced recent “lethal violence” against the Jewish community in Manchester and in London and said that “hatred directed at people for who they are, or what they believe, is not protest. It is prejudice”.

Harry also wrote about the “deep and justified alarm” at the scale of loss in Gaza and Lebanon but argued people must be more “clear” about where their anger is directed.

The duke wrote: “We have seen how legitimate protest against state actions in the Middle East does exist alongside hostility toward Jewish communities at home – just as we have also seen how criticism of those actions can be too easily dismissed or mischaracterised.

“Nothing, whether criticism of a government or the reality of violence and destruction, can ever justify hostility toward an entire people or faith.”

Police stand on duty at a rally organised by the Campaign Against Antisemitism last month, following the stabbing of two Jewish men the day before in the Golders Green neighbourhood of London. (Picture: Carlos Jasso/AFP via Getty Images)
Police stand on duty at a rally organised by the Campaign Against Antisemitism last month, following the stabbing of two Jewish men the day before in the Golders Green neighbourhood of London. (Picture: Carlos Jasso/AFP via Getty Images)

The piece is critical of the lack of nuance in much of the media discourse in the wake of the recent spate of antisemitic attacks in the UK.

The duke bemoans how polarised public debate has become, and said it deepens the confusion that “fuels division”.

Harry acknowledged that the instinct to speak out, march and call for an end to suffering was “human and necessary” but that people must be clear that the “onus falls squarely on the state – not an entire people”.

While he references the actions of “the state” throughout the article, he at no point names Israel.

Harry wrote: “We cannot ignore a difficult truth: when states act without accountability, and in ways that raise serious questions under international humanitarian law – criticism is both legitimate, necessary and essential in any democracy.

“The consequences do not remain contained within borders. They reverberate outward, shaping perception, inflaming tensions.”

With PA

£12,000 solar-panel grants for thousands of homes confirmed

Households will be given £15bn in grants and loans to install solar panels, heat pumps and batteries to help lower bills, under new legislation to boost energy resilience in the UK.

A new Energy Independence Bill, announced as part of the King’s Speech, will also seek to shave money off people’s bills if they use power during sunny or windy periods when the grid is producing excess electricity.

But the most eyecatching element of the new legislation is the creation of the new Warm Homes Agency, which will oversee the Government’s vast rollout of energy electrification over the coming years.

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Low-income homes

Under the Warm Homes Plan, around £5bn will be made available to fund free home improvement plans for low-income families. The packages would be tailored to what would be most suitable for people’s homes, whether that is installing solar panels, heat pumps, insulation or draught proofing. It is expected that households with a total income of around £35,000 or less would receive a grant of between £9,000 to £12,000.

Mid-to-high income homes

The Plan will also provide around £2bn of government funding to back no and low interest loans for higher income households to fit heat pumps and solar panels and batteries to help take them off the “roller coaster of fossil fuels”. Ministers had hoped to fast-track the rollout of the plan to help insulate households from the impact of higher energy bills later this year in the wake of the US-Iran war.

Solar panels

According to the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, the war in the Middle East has led to soaring interest in fitting solar panels and batteries. The department has calculated that an owner-occupier three-bed mid-terrace house with solar panels and battery fitted could save around £450 on their bills each year. The Government is also tweaking regulations to allow those renting or living in flats to buy plug-in solar panels that could save them around £110 a year on their energy bills.

Heat pumps

The new technology has suffered from difficult media coverage, with the cost of fitting heat pumps usually cited at more than double that of a new gas boiler or around £11,000. Under the Government’s boiler upgrade plan, homeowners can apply for a grant of up to around £7,500. Officials have estimated that a three-bed detached house with solar panels and a heat pump could save £550 a year.

Energy discounts

The legislation will enable the removal of charges on power consumers export to the grid, for example from solar panels, and allow discounted energy at times of excess generation to give families more control over bills as renewables increase. Currently, when there is excess power being generated – for example on a sunny, windy weekend day – grid operators have to pay generators to reduce what they are putting into the grid, increasing costs for consumers and wasting clean power when it is most available.

Uncoupling electricity prices from gas prices

A separate piece of legislation, called the Electricity Generator Levy Bill, will aim to lower the cost of energy bills by cutting the link between electricity prices and gas prices. Under the current system, households can end up paying higher bills because the price of electricity is set by the last unit of electricity needed to meet demand at any given time. This is usually gas-generated electricity, meaning when gas prices spike, such as during international conflicts, electricity prices go up. The Government hopes to weaken this link and deliver cheaper, more stable bills.

The moment that confirmed Trump had betrayed Maga

Donald Trump won the US presidency, twice, by promising to put “America First”. This was more than just a slogan. Trump had a very particular version of what that meant, and he shared it often with the US public.

The rest of the world was laughing at America, he claimed, and had been ripping it off for too long. America was being taken advantage of through dodgy trade deals and it was working class Americans who were suffering as a result – as factories shut down and jobs were cut, because US industry couldn’t keep up with international competition from the likes of China.

When Trump returned to the White House last year, his promise was to introduce sweeping tariffs on imported goods – which he wrongly seems to believe are paid for by foreign countries, rather than by American consumers – and to bring manufacturing back to the US.

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Trump also had a clear villain in mind when he suggested who was getting the better of America under President Joe Biden and the Democrats: China. His presidency, he promised, would take on China properly, and Make America Great Again.

Yet, when Trump’s supporters see the photographs of their President getting off Air Force One as he arrives in Beijing for his summit with Xi Jinping, they could be forgiven for feeling deeply betrayed.

Trump was greeted by the kind of pomp and spectacle he so clearly admires. Thick red carpet rolled out from the steps of his plane, both sides lined by soldiers and then by rows of fresh-faced young greeters waving both US and Chinese flags.

China is superb at putting on a show for distinguished visitors, and its leader is excellent at knowing just how to get the better of those he deals with. Trump, not a man known for his poker face at the best of times, could not be more obviously charmed.

US President Donald Trump (C) is escorted by China's Vice President Han Zheng (R) upon his arrival at Beijing Capital Airport in Beijing on May 13, 2026. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP via Getty Images)
(Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP)

The purpose of Trump’s visit to China is to do a deal, but for a President who likes to boast about who is or isn’t “holding the cards”, he must be aware he is playing with a very weak hand indeed. Even a US Supreme Court as friendly towards him as the current one could not uphold his tariff plans, meaning Trump’s greatest weapon in his trade war with China has been taken away from him.

Meanwhile, Trump has disposed of most of the US State Department’s best professional negotiators, choosing to leave almost all global diplomacy to his billionaire pal Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner. Both have had their hands full in the Middle East, meaning there is almost no groundwork for a meaningful deal in China.

During his presidential campaigning in 2024, Trump promised to represent left-behind Americans against China, which he said had taken their manufacturing jobs, and against big tech, which was accumulating wealth and power on the East and West coasts, leaving the ‘real’ America in the middle behind.

Given this, the President’s choice of travel companions for his trip to China will surely only have alarmed his supporters – as numerous bosses of big tech and global finance companies were on board the plane.

Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, was on Air Force One, as was outgoing Apple CEO Tim Cook, as well as top executives from BlackRock, Blackstone, Citigroup, Visa, Mastercard, Goldman Sachs and Meta.

TOPSHOT - US President Donald Trump (C) presents SpaceX, Twitter and electric car maker Tesla CEO Elon Musk (R) to China's Vice President Han Zheng at Beijing Capital Airport in Beijing on May 13, 2026. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP via Getty Images)
Trump introducing Elon Musk to China’s Vice President, Han Zheng, at Beijing airport (Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP)

Trump’s political opponents have always tried to paint him as a bad representative for the working classes. They tried, time and again, to point out that Trump was himself ultra-rich. They noted that Trump had left thousands of people unemployed when he bankrupted his casinos, and that his tax avoidance had deprived the government of hundreds of millions of dollars.

None of this cut through – because Trump had a message tens of millions of Americans wanted to hear, and he did not seem to be part of the establishment elite. The angry reaction of many elites to him all but confirmed his outside status.

For a time, Trump’s popularity seemed to be untouchable. Even now, there is a sizeable ride-or-die Maga contingent for whom he can do no wrong. But millions of Republican voters are feeling doubt enter their souls: gas prices are rising, and he promised they would fall. America is at war, exactly what they thought Trump would stop happening. Things aren’t going to plan.

Now, in the middle of all of that, the “America First” President is getting a lavish welcome from China, having brought a plane full of CEOs along for the ride. Voters might not know exactly what that means – but at least some of them will know betrayal when they see it.

The unexpected name on Labour MPs’ lips

Say one thing for Wes Streeting, the man has more front than Brighton. He sat in the House of Commons chamber, only slightly self-conscious, chuckling along to the warm cross-party badinage that constitutes the Humble Address following the King’s opening of Parliament. Sir Keir Starmer was only a few yards away.

Elsewhere in Westminster his team had steam coming off their mobile phones as a frantic ring-round was under way to gauge how much support Streeting had. He needs above 81 MPs to challenge the Prime Minister after relations between the pair reached an all-time low.

Earlier a No 10 showdown concluded after just 16 minutes, with Streeting leaving the black front door stony-faced for the second time in 24 hours.

For Streeting, it’s now or never. Despite a letter from 100 or so supportive backbenchers, Starmer is at his most vulnerable. Some estimate the number of his MPs against may be twice as high.

And his opponents are not ready. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is not yet in Parliament – although he could find a seat within days – and Angela Rayner, former deputy prime minister, is still under the cloud of an HM Revenue and Customs investigation.

Despite early promises there would be no distraction from the constitutional significance of Parliament’s opening, Labour squabbles overshadowed the pomp. MPs gathered in knots to discuss the latest developments and discuss who the other candidates would be. Most expect Starmer to fight on if Streeting challenges him.

Streeting is very much what-it-says-on-the-tin. He’s made no secret of his ambitions, obsessed with Labour politics from an early age, spending a book token on a collection of Tony Blair’s speeches, which he read on the school coach. As a student campaigner he was often seen locked in political arguments at parties.

He is the son of teenage parents and his grandfather was an armed robber who did time in prison and knew East End gangsters, the Kray twins. His grandmother also served at HM’s pleasure and there met the woman at the centre of the Profumo affair, Christine Keeler.

But, what’s not to be underestimated is how much the Labour left loathes Streeting. As Health Secretary, he’s promised to fire under-performing NHS managers and did not hesitate to describe the health service as “broken”. His willingness to talk up the role of private providers in the NHS did not go down well either. His vigorous opposition to former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and his acolytes are also running sores.

He’s often seen as a shiny neo-Blairite. However, at university Streeting briefly left the Labour Party because he opposed Blair’s Iraq war. More pertinently, his critics will tie his friendship to Peter Mandelson in what could be a highly inflammatory leadership contest.

Streeting is also one of the most high-profile pro-Europeans in Cabinet. He has suggested Labour should consider taking the UK back into a customs union, claiming it would boost growth. In the wake of local elections where vast swathes of Leave voters backed Reform UK, that’s another internal Labour fight coming down the track.

In Parliament on Wednesday the soft-left was anxious not to be left out of a conversation about Labour’s future direction, with ongoing discussion about who could slot in as their candidate. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband was the name on everyone’s lips. “He has the numbers,” to get on to the ballot, one Labour MP declared. A Cabinet minister told The i Paper Labour’s former leader is a likely candidate in any speedy contest.

Other pro-Burnham MPs said they would push Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee to allow sufficient time in a lengthy leadership contest for their man to return. Burnham’s allies say momentum behind him has been building with the support of the 100-strong Tribune Group swinging behind him, not Rayner. Some in the Blue Labour movement are also understood to be lending their support.

That may come as a blow to the little-known outsider Al Carns, the veterans minister, who has made no secret he will throw his hat into the ring, but is relying on the Blue Labour faction promoting blue-collar and culturally conservative values.

Back in the House of Commons chamber, Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch broke with the convention which demands speeches during the Humble Address debate are light-hearted. She attacked Starmer then had a pop at Streeting. “There’s no point him giving me dirty looks, we all know what he’s been up to,” Badenoch told him. On Labour’s front bench, Starmer loyalist Pat McFadden allowed himself one of his rare smiles.

Starmer stood up to pay tribute to Labour MP Naz Shah who had made a witty and moving speech about her difficult childhood. Shah’s recently released autobiography, Honoured, has over 100 endorsements, Starmer noted. “At last, Mr Speaker, a list we can all get behind,” the Prime Minister joked. Even Streeting laughed, his shoulders shaking.

But the jolly faces and bonhomie belied what was going on behind the scenes. Supporters of Streeting were bitter about Starmer. “He can’t control his party, he hasn’t even got the authority to sack Wes,” one Labour MP remarked.

All the bitching off-stage allowed Streeting to present a swan-like indifference so close to Starmer on the front bench.

The Health Secretary is an irrepressible extrovert and one of life’s optimists. At parties he is usually first up with karaoke microphone in hand and has been known to sing Robbie Williams’ hit Angels, jokingly subbing in: “I’m loving Starmer instead.”

After the last few days, it’s unlikely he’ll sing that lyric again soon.

EU under-30s’ visas and trade deal face delay as Labour implodes

A Labour leadership contest triggered now would delay the Brexit reset Sir Keir Starmer has made central to his efforts to remain Prime Minister, EU sources have warned.

One said plans for a UK-EU summit in the next two months to sign off deals on trade and youth mobility “would be tricky”, while another said uncertainty over who would be Prime Minister would likely stop the necessary trade-offs being made in negotiations to strike agreements.

Starmer has placed an increasing emphasis on his Brexit reset, pledging at a crunch speech on Monday to strike a so-called youth experience deal to allow under-30s to move more easily between the UK and EU. He also put new laws to make it easier to align with the single market at the heart of his King’s Speech on Wednesday.

Shorts – Quick stories

But if Wes Streeting triggers a leadership contest on Thursday, Starmer faces fighting a battle to cling on to his job with his flagship EU project put on hold.

A second source said the EU would not make any concessions or trade-offs that the UK will need to strike the reset deals it wants with Starmer’s future in question.

“Brussels will not make a move without exploring the intentions of London, whoever resides in No 10,” the EU source said.

‘Hard to see why the EU should engage’

Former UK ambassador to France, Lord Ricketts, this week warned that it was “hard to see why the EU should engage on a further drive to get closer to the UK while the UK political landscape remains so unpredictable”.

A third EU source however insisted that until a contest is triggered Brussels would “keep working” towards reset deals.

Starmer had been hoping to tie up deals to ease food and drink trade, align carbon taxes which would help UK businesses, and create a UK-EU youth mobility scheme at a second reset summit between the two sides in June or July

Ahead of this, he used the King’s Speech on Wednesday to say his Government was “setting a new direction for Britain at the next EU summit” and “putting Britain at the heart of Europe”.

It included a new European Partnership Bill that would allow ministers to fast-track EU rules into law without giving MPs a vote, which the Government has argued is crucial for its plans to align with swathes of Brussels regulation to get access to the European single market, with deals to do so on food and drink and electricity being negotiated currently.

While the Bill is set to give Parliament “a say” in the new agreements, critics have warned that the powers laid out in the legislation will allow ministers to bypass a meaningful vote by MPs.

Government sources indicated that ministers were open to discussing different mechanisms to give Parliament a say when the legislation is brought to the Commons.

Food and drink deal would lower shopping bills

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said a food and drink deal would help lower prices of household goods for shoppers.

William Bain, head of trade policy at the BCC, said: “A permanent deal with the EU can’t come soon enough for UK firms.

“In the talks ahead, ministers must deliver a deal that truly unburdens business and cuts costs.

“Consumers will then reap the benefits in their shopping baskets. Making trade with the EU quicker, cheaper and simpler is crucial to boosting economic growth in the years ahead.”

Nine options to replace Ben White as England right-back

Ben White’s injury shines a light on one of England’s problem positions heading into the World Cup.

The Arsenal defender is among eight players to have started at right-back in Thomas Tuchel’s 12 matches so far as England manager.

Tuchel this week submitted a provisional 55-player squad for the World Cup, although the full make-up has not been released by the Football Association , and it is unclear whether White has been included.

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Ben White suffered a knee injury against West Ham (Photo: Reuters)

White’s World Cup hopes are in the balance after he was ruled out for the remainder of the season when sustaining a significant medial knee ligament injury against West Ham United on Sunday.

The 28-year-old had only just returned to the England fold, ending his exile after four years when featuring in March’s friendlies against Uruguay – against whom he scored – and Japan.

White’s potential absence therefore opens the door for other contenders, including Trent Alexander-Arnold, who has not made the German’s last four squads.

Tuchel’s starting right-backs

  • Reece James: 4
  • Kyle Walker*: 2
  • Curtis Jones: 1
  • Ezri Konsa: 1
  • Djed Spence: 1
  • Jarell Quansah: 1
  • Tino Livramento: 1
  • Ben White: 1

*Walker has retired from international duty

Real Madrid right-back Alexander-Arnold has played just 26 minutes for England under Tuchel, against Andorra last summer, but could find his chances of heading to North America have just increased.

But where in the pecking order is he? Many would make him their top pick, but here is where he realistically ranks among the right-backs in contention to start England’s World Cup opener against Croatia on 17 June.

Curtis Jones

BARCELONA, SPAIN - JUNE 07: Curtis Jones of England looks on during the FIFA World Cup 2026 European Qualifier match between Andorra and England at RCDE Stadium on June 07, 2025 in Barcelona, Spain. (Photo by Alex Caparros - The FA/The FA via Getty Images)
Curtis Jones played at right-back for England last summer (Photo: Getty)

Wait, what? Well, we are counting down after all, and Liverpool’s Curtis Jones made a surprise start at right-back – ahead of Alexander-Arnold – in the game against Andorra last June.

Jones’s versatility makes him a strong squad option, but after making Tuchel’s first two squads in 2025 he has missed out on the last four.

Joe Gomez

Jones’ club teammate Joe Gomez can play across the defensive line, but he has not earned a call-up since the Gareth Southgate days. Intriguingly, there has not been a Liverpool player in any of Tuchel’s last four squads.

Jarell Quansah

Former Liverpool defender Jarell Quansah is predominantly a centre-back but his one and only England cap to date came at right-back away to Albania in November.

The Bayer Leverkusen star is therefore on Tuchel’s radar and only withdrew from the March squad due to a thigh injury he has since recovered from.

Nico O’Reilly

LONDON, ENGLAND - MARCH 31: Nico O'Reilly of England evades a challenge from Ritsu Doan of Japan during the international friendly match between England and Japan at Wembley Stadium on March 31, 2026 in London, England. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
Nico O’Reilly is in contention to start on the left for England (Photo: Getty)

Why not? The Pep Guardiola pet project of the season has left us wondering if there is anything the Manchester City player cannot do, and though mainly a left-back – where he has started three of the last four England games – the 21-year-old would no doubt be comfortable making the switch if required.

Djed Spence

Also contending with O’Reilly for the left-back role, Djed Spence has played both sides under Tuchel.

The Tottenham Hotspur defender has had a niggling calf injury this year, starting infrequently for Spurs, but is probably on the World Cup plane thanks to his versatility.

Tino Livramento

LONDON, ENGLAND - MARCH 31: Tino Livramento of England during the international friendly match between England and Japan at Wembley Stadium on March 31, 2026 in London, England. (Photo by Robin Jones/Getty Images)
Tino Livramento is also an injury doubt (Photo: Getty)

Newcastle United right-back Tino Livramento has been plagued by injuries this season, missing more matches than he has played due to knee, hamstring and thigh problems.

Livramento started for England against Uruguay in March, and though back in training, Newcastle boss Eddie Howe is reluctant to rush him back.

“That would feel silly,” Howe said. “We will let him recover and get a good summer behind him.”

Livramento is therefore an unknown, and should he and White miss out it could mean…

Trent Alexander-Arnold

Enter Alexander-Arnold? He has reportedly made the 55-player cut but whether he survives the final cull – well, he certainly won’t be holding his breath.

“I know what Trent can give us,” Tuchel said after omitting Alexander-Arnold in March, and when asked what the other right-backs offer he replied: “A slightly different profile.”

In short: he does not fit tactically, and his only hope of going to the World Cup is if Tuchel overlooks the, arguably exaggerated, defensive frailties and sees value in taking one of England’s best passers since David Beckham. Yes, I’m an Alexander-Arnold fan, why do you ask?

Ezri Konsa

A shoo-in for the plane and perhaps even a starting role at centre-back next to Marc Guehi, Aston Villa’s Ezri Konsa has played on the right for Tuchel and could make way in the centre if John Stones is preferred to partner his Manchester City teammate.

Konsa would be a safe pair of hands at right-back, if not entirely exciting.

Read more

Reece James

Few doubt Reece James is Tuchel’s starting right-back of choice this summer, but plenty will have doubts over his fitness.

The Chelsea captain recently returned from a hamstring injury to face Liverpool on Saturday, and provided he navigates the next month without a hitch – no guarantee – he will be in the starting XI against Croatia.

Inside the Burnham campaign launch plan

Andy Burnham is poised to attempt on of the most dramatic political comebacks in recent history after allies claimed he has found a Labour MP ready to stand aside for him so he can re-enter Parliament and challenge Keir Starmer.

Allies of the Mayor of Greater Manchester say he will make the announcement as soon as Thursday, piling fresh pressure on the embattled Prime Minister who is clinging on to power despite more than 100 MPs and ministers calling on him to go.

Burnham, who would be the frontrunner in a leadership contest, came to London yesterday, and spoke to supportive MPs during a series of phone calls on Tuesday when he made his pitch to them. He told them he was “ready to go”. 

Shorts – Quick stories

One source said: “Andy has found a seat and is ready to go.” Another source added: “Andy is ready and will announce his move as soon as tomorrow.”

Burnham would still face challenges to be elected

Polls show Burnham is the most popular of prospective leadership candidates, but at the moment cannot stand because he is not an MP.

Downing Street is understood to be braced for the announcement and believe the seat he is targeting is Afzal Khan’s seat of Manchester Rusholme. Khan is a former Lord Mayor of Manchester and is one of Burnham’s closest political allies. Khan has previously denied he would give way for Burnham.

Other seats that allies of Burham have been targeting include Peter Dowd’s seat of Bootle, in Merseyside, Charlotte Nichols’ seat of Warrington North and Marie Rimmer’s seat of St Helens South – although all have denied that they are preparing to step down.

If Burnham has found a seat he will still face obstacles. He will still need the approval of Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC), which blocked him from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election in January in an attempt to protect a weakened Starmer from facing a leadership challenge from the so-called “King of the North”.

According to reports in The Times, Burnham’s allies believe they are at least one person short of a majority on the NEC. Several prominent Labour figures, including Lucy Powell, the Deputy Leader, and Angela Rayner, the Deputy Prime Minister, have publicly said he should be allowed to return to Parliament.

Then he must win the by-election. One ally familiar with the plans said they feared the seat Burnham had found may not be winnable. According to a recent MRP poll, the Greens are predicted to win the seat of Manchester Rusholme with a projected 50 per cent vote share, to Labour’s 24 per cent.

Warrington North is a target for Nigel Farage’s Reform party and the projected vote share for 2029 suggests this seat would lead to a neck-and-neck race between Reform and Labour. Reform is currently slightly ahead on vote share at 41 per cent to Labour’s 40 per cent.

In St Helens South, the projected vote share for the next general election suggests Reform would take the seat on 30 per cent, to Labour’s 25 per cent.

Only in Bootle does Labour’s projected vote share of 36 per cent come out on top of its nearest rival Reform, on 24 per cent.

A Source said: “Andy has found a seat, but the worry is that it might not be winnable. He is going to have to throw everything at it and knows it’s a risk but is going to go for it anyway.” 

Pressure for leadership race to include him

Then there is the timescale of whether he can be back in Parliament in time for any leadership election, which may be triggered as soon as Thursday if Health Secretary Wes Streeting quits the Cabinet in order to stand.

Burnham’s allies hope that a by-election writ can be moved quickly to ensure that he is back in Parliament in time in the event a leadership contest is triggered.

A Labour insider made clear that Burnham’s backers would push the National Executive Committee (NEC), the party’s ruling body, to make sure any leadership contest allows time for the Greater Manchester mayor to return to Parliament and throw his hat in the ring.

“If Wes triggers, it is then up to the NEC to decide a timetable,” they said. “It is in the NEC’s power to set any timetable it thinks sensible.

“It is perfectly possible to set a timetable that allows for Andy to get into Parliament in the meantime.”

Put to them that would delay the start of the contest considerably, the source said: “Is that more or less mad than Labour holding a contest for leader with the most popular Labour politician in the country blocked from consideration?”

Leading soft-left Labour MP and Burnham ally said: “Angela (Rayner) will be [the candidate]” if Streeting triggers the leadership race tomorrow.

“But the enthusiasm will be muted. We’re in a very, very poor place and I think the party will become increasingly ungovernable.”

Momentum building for Burnham, allies say

Burnham’s allies say momentum behind him has been buildingand he is thought to have the support of the Tribune Group, an influential group of up to 100 soft-left MPs. On the opposite side of the party, he is also understood to have won the backing on some MPs in the Blue Labour movement. 

One Labour MP in the North of England said: “Burnham is the only one who can save the Labour party and stop Nigel Farage from becoming the next Prime Minister.

“When I was out on the doorstep during the recent local elections, lots of people told me they would not be voting Labour at the next General Election. However, when I asked whether they would vote Labour if Andy Burnham was the leader, the answer was very different. They see him as their man.” 

Burnham, who has made a series of policy speeches at ideologically aligned thinktanks in recent month, is said to be preparing an explicit programme for government that would be announced at a prospective parliamentary byelection campaign. 

Pledges backed by Burnham, a former health secretary, include introducing proportional representation across the UK, a 10-year plan for local services and an overhaul of inheritance tax to pay for the social care system.