Inside the Burnham campaign launch plan

One source said: “Andy has found a seat and is ready to go.” Another source added: “Andy is ready and will announce his move as soon as tomorrow.”

Burnham would still face challenges to be elected

Polls show Burnham is the most popular of prospective leadership candidates, but at the moment cannot stand because he is not an MP.

Downing Street is understood to be braced for the announcement and believe the seat he is targeting is Afzal Khan’s seat of Manchester Rusholme. Khan is a former Lord Mayor of Manchester and is one of Burnham’s closest political allies. Khan has previously denied he would give way for Burnham.

Other seats that allies of Burham have been targeting include Peter Dowd’s seat of Bootle, in Merseyside, Charlotte Nichols’ seat of Warrington North and Marie Rimmer’s seat of St Helens South – although all have denied that they are preparing to step down.

If Burnham has found a seat he will still face obstacles. He will still need the approval of Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC), which blocked him from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election in January in an attempt to protect a weakened Starmer from facing a leadership challenge from the so-called “King of the North”.

According to reports in The Times, Burnham’s allies believe they are at least one person short of a majority on the NEC. Several prominent Labour figures, including Lucy Powell, the Deputy Leader, and Angela Rayner, the Deputy Prime Minister, have publicly said he should be allowed to return to Parliament.

Then he must win the by-election. One ally familiar with the plans said they feared the seat Burnham had found may not be winnable. According to a recent MRP poll, the Greens are predicted to win the seat of Manchester Rusholme with a projected 50 per cent vote share, to Labour’s 24 per cent.

Warrington North is a target for Nigel Farage’s Reform party and the projected vote share for 2029 suggests this seat would lead to a neck-and-neck race between Reform and Labour. Reform is currently slightly ahead on vote share at 41 per cent to Labour’s 40 per cent.

In St Helens South, the projected vote share for the next general election suggests Reform would take the seat on 30 per cent, to Labour’s 25 per cent.

Only in Bootle does Labour’s projected vote share of 36 per cent come out on top of its nearest rival Reform, on 24 per cent.

A Source said: “Andy has found a seat, but the worry is that it might not be winnable. He is going to have to throw everything at it and knows it’s a risk but is going to go for it anyway.” 

Pressure for leadership race to include him

Then there is the timescale of whether he can be back in Parliament in time for any leadership election, which may be triggered as soon as Thursday if Health Secretary Wes Streeting quits the Cabinet in order to stand.

Burnham’s allies hope that a by-election writ can be moved quickly to ensure that he is back in Parliament in time in the event a leadership contest is triggered.

A Labour insider made clear that Burnham’s backers would push the National Executive Committee (NEC), the party’s ruling body, to make sure any leadership contest allows time for the Greater Manchester mayor to return to Parliament and throw his hat in the ring.

“If Wes triggers, it is then up to the NEC to decide a timetable,” they said. “It is in the NEC’s power to set any timetable it thinks sensible.

“It is perfectly possible to set a timetable that allows for Andy to get into Parliament in the meantime.”

Put to them that would delay the start of the contest considerably, the source said: “Is that more or less mad than Labour holding a contest for leader with the most popular Labour politician in the country blocked from consideration?”

Leading soft-left Labour MP and Burnham ally said: “Angela (Rayner) will be [the candidate]” if Streeting triggers the leadership race tomorrow.

“But the enthusiasm will be muted. We’re in a very, very poor place and I think the party will become increasingly ungovernable.”

Momentum building for Burnham, allies say

Burnham’s allies say momentum behind him has been buildingand he is thought to have the support of the Tribune Group, an influential group of up to 100 soft-left MPs. On the opposite side of the party, he is also understood to have won the backing on some MPs in the Blue Labour movement. 

One Labour MP in the North of England said: “Burnham is the only one who can save the Labour party and stop Nigel Farage from becoming the next Prime Minister.

“When I was out on the doorstep during the recent local elections, lots of people told me they would not be voting Labour at the next General Election. However, when I asked whether they would vote Labour if Andy Burnham was the leader, the answer was very different. They see him as their man.” 

Burnham, who has made a series of policy speeches at ideologically aligned thinktanks in recent month, is said to be preparing an explicit programme for government that would be announced at a prospective parliamentary byelection campaign. 

Pledges backed by Burnham, a former health secretary, include introducing proportional representation across the UK, a 10-year plan for local services and an overhaul of inheritance tax to pay for the social care system.