Burnham risks losing a by-election, insiders fear

Andy Burnham should abandon his ambitions to return to Westminster amid fears Labour could lose both the mayoralty of Greater Manchester and a by-election, Cabinet ministers told The i Paper.

Senior Labour strategists have been looking with dismay at last week’s local election results in Greater Manchester. Reform won every single ward up for election in Wigan, alongside 18 out of 19 seats in Tameside, with 50-point swings from Labour to Reform.

Labour was also humbled in places like Oldham and Rochdale, while in the centre at the City Council, it was the Greens who triumphed, winning more than twice as many seats up for election than Labour. In Bolton Labour lost five of the seven seats it had up for election. In other parts of the Greater Manchester conurbation, the results were more positive for Labour. The party retained its overall majority in Trafford and Wigan and Salford but also shed multiple seats.

Shorts – Quick stories

health & wellbeing

How listening to music and visiting museums can slow ageing

Enjoying the arts could be as important as exercise in slowing ageing, a study suggests.

Academics said their study provides evidence that arts and cultural engagement should be “recognised as a health-promoting behaviour in a similar way to exercise”.

What you need to know

Engaging with the arts at least once a week

4%

How much slower people aged compared to those who rarely engaged.

This is the same as those who exercise once a week.

One year

Researchers found that people who engaged in arts at least weekly were a year younger on average compared with those who rarely engaged.

Activities seen to be useful include reading, listening to music or visiting a gallery or museum.

What the experts say

This builds on a growing body of evidence about the health impact of the arts, with arts activities being shown to reduce stress, lower inflammation and improve cardiovascular disease risk, just as exercise is known to do

Senior author Dr Feifei Bu

go deeper on AGEING

Six lessons on living to 100 from Sir David Attenborough

Kasia Delgado

Chief features writer

For all the inspiring insight into nature that Sir David Attenborough has given us during his extraordinary life, he has also shown us how to age well. Even now, long past retirement age, he has no interest in retreating from the world.

Read the full story here.

MONEY

The benefits of first-time buyers accessing their pensions early – and the risks

Emily Braeger

Money Reporter

First-time buyers should be allowed to access pension savings early to fund a deposit for a house, according to some policy experts. Supporters say it could help tackle the biggest barrier to buying a home. Critics warn it risks weakening already fragile retirement prospects.

How would it work?

Most proposals would allow younger workers to withdraw part of their defined contribution pension pot to fund a deposit, usually with limits on how much could be accessed or restrictions to first-time buyers only.

It comes after the Tony Blair Institute last week proposed replacing the state pension with a more flexible “Lifespan Fund”.

SAVING AND BANKING

4 min read

Who broke Britain?

5 min read

Could it help with deposits?

Supporters of the reform say the policy should be judged against the reality facing first-time buyers. Sir Steve Webb, former pensions minister, said allowing people to access their pensions to fund deposits could help them avoid renting in retirement.

He said: “If it helps ensure people are not renters in retirement, then early access to pension pots could still be a good overall strategy for retirement. The risk, as always, is that this approach could stoke up house price inflation.”

What are the downsides?

• Several experts argue that early access would do little for those most locked out of home ownership.
• Zoe Alexander, executive director of policy and advocacy at Pensions UK, said the policy may sound appealing but risks creating new problems.
• She argued that for many younger and lower-income savers, pension pots are still too small to make a meaningful dent in a deposit.

Exclusive

3 min read

How ‘super El Niño’ could make next year hottest on record

Climate scientists have issued
a warning of a warming cycle starting later this year.

Here is everything you need to know.

What is ‘El Niño’?

A natural weather cycle known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

It brings sustained warmth across the Pacific Ocean’s surface, releasing more heat into the atmosphere.

OPINION

5 min read

What the experts say

• There is an 82 per cent chance of a ‘very strong’ El Niño this year.
• It will push up temperatures starting in autumn 2026 and into summer 2027.
• It can cause floods, droughts and push up the price of crops such as coffee and sugar.
• Britain could see 40°C temperatures for the first time since 2022.

ENVIRONMENT

3 min read

READ MORE ON THE ENVIRONMENT

I’ve got a heat pump and solar panels – my monthly bills are just £65

Lucie Heath

Environment Correspondent

A homeowner who has invested in solar panels, a heat pump and an electric car to help avoid soaring energy and fuel bills has said he is saving more than £1,000 a year.

Click here to read the full story.

HEALTH

How weight-loss drugs can help obese breast cancer patients

Weight loss drugs could improve survival rates and lower the risk of cancer returning in breast cancer patients with obesity, a new study suggests.

Researchers said GLP-1 weight loss drugs such as Mounjaro and Wegovy “may offer protective benefits beyond glycaemic and weight control, potentially improving survival and recurrence risk in some female patients with breast cancer”.

A survival boost

Researchers from the US-based Massey Comprehensive Cancer Centre said breast cancer patients living with obesity or type 2 diabetes tend to have poorer survival outcomes.

While GLP-1 drugs are already known to help treat both conditions, researchers added that their links with breast cancer survival and recurrence “remains unclear”.

HEALTH

4 min read

LIFESTYLE

5 min read

The mystery link

With researchers unsure of the mystery link, they set out to examine the connection among breast cancer patients over a 10-year period. Here’s how it went:

• The study, published in the journal JAMA Network Open, examined data on 841,831 US patients aged 18 and over.
• They used prescription data to see whether patients had used GLP-1s before or after they were diagnosed.
• They compared 1,610 patients who used, and 1,610 patients who did not use, the weight loss drugs at any point.
• The weight loss drugs appeared to carry a 65 per cent reduced risk of death among women with obesity during the 10-year follow up period, researchers said.
• Use of the drugs were also linked to 56 per cent reduced risk of the disease returning.

Landmark study

All-cause mortality was approximately 60 per cent lower at both five and 10 years among GLP-1 RA users compared with non-users. No study has found a survival difference this large associated with GLP-1 RA prescriptions in a population of women with breast cancer or any other cancer.

Dr Richard Wender, the University of Pennsylvania

What next?

The researchers said their findings support the launch of clinical trials to further evaluate the effects of the drugs.

While the findings are promising, more work is needed before changing treatment practices for breast cancer patients.

LIFESTYLE

7 min read

WORLD ANALYSIS

Trump faces his greatest rival this week. He needs a win

Peter Frankopan

Professor of Global History at Oxford University

Only a few months ago, the prospect of a summit between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping looked likely to be a bruising confrontation.

Last year, after Washington had imposed tariffs on Chinese goods that reached as high as 145 per cent at one stage, rhetoric on both sides hardened sharply.

Rising anxieties

Trump has tried to navigate the rising anxiety about China, which is one of the issues that has united Republicans and Democrats in the US for the best part of 10 years.

He has consistently expressed his admiration for Jinping, even when he was out of office. To his detractors, this was yet another sign that the US President has a soft spot for autocrats and dictators.

OPINION

3 min read

A ‘friendly’ summit

After a meeting between the two leaders in Busan, South Korea, last October, Jinping took a similar line. “China and the United States should be partners and friends,” he said.

This does not mean that the anxieties that both countries have about each other’s motivations, ambitions or capabilities have dissipated. At the moment, however, it suits both sides to make this week’s summit as friendly and constructive as possible.

Iran war pressures

For the US, the opening of Pandora’s box that has followed the attacks on Iran means that, as well as being preoccupied elsewhere, there is a need to replenish heavily depleted weapons stocks.

• That means that a moratorium with China is helpful, as is a loosening of Beijing’s tight controls on the export of rare earths and critical minerals.
• Trump has been messaging his intentions accordingly.
• Last month, he posted on Truth Social about the summit: “President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are working together smartly, and very well!”

The cost of fighting

Trump cannot afford to pick another fight at a time when the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has put pressure not only on oil supplies but also on fertiliser, helium and the global economy as a whole.

That works well for Jinping, too. The optics of Washington treating China as a peer are good for the latter’s global stature.

OPINION

4 min read

Movement on both sides

That is why the meeting is likely to produce a set of carefully calibrated announcements designed to show that co-operation remains possible.

The United States is expected to push hard for major Chinese purchases of American goods.

China, meanwhile, will seek movement on export controls, semiconductor restrictions and investment barriers.

Analysis

4 min read

Analysis

6 min read

Environment

How climate change could put tea drinkers in hot water

The familiar taste of tea may turn bitter as climate change disrupts harvests and makes it harder to achieve consistent flavours, campaigners have warned. A Christian Aid report also warns that a warming world could cause the price of a cuppa to spike.

“As climate variability increases, achieving that consistency becomes more challenging, Dr Neha Mittal from the Met Office said.

What does the report say?

• Rising temperatures and worsening weather extremes in countries such as Kenya, India and Sri Lanka could make tea more bitter and harsher, researchers say.
• The issue is also hitting close to home, with tea growers in the UK warning that it is making it much harder to achieve consistent flavours .
• Climate-induced disruptions to harvests could cause price spikes and unreliable supplies .
• The rising price of fertiliser and fuel as a result of the US-Iran war is also expected to hit tea producers.

ENVIRONMENT

3 min read

Supporting farmers

Tea production relies on stable temperature and rainfall conditions, which are shifting in producer nations. Optimal growth conditions sit within a narrow range of between 13°C and 30°C and with adequate but not excessive rainfall.

The flavour and quality of tea depends on a balance of compounds such as catechins, amino acids and polyphenols, the report said. However, higher temperatures increase the production of more astringent compounds while reducing sweetness – leading to a more bitter taste.

The expert view

For generations, consumers have taken for granted that a cup of tea will taste the same, day in, day out. But that consistency depends on a stable climate, and that stability is now breaking down. What we are seeing is the beginning of a shift towards a harsher brew

Claire Nasike Akello, climate adaptation and resilience lead at Christian Aid

“Look, [Nigel] Farage will throw everything he has at both fights and then we find ourselves in an even worse mess,” a Cabinet minister told The i Paper. “And how much will they [Reform UK] outspend us by? And then [Green Party Leader Zack] Polanski can sweep in too.”

Burnham is understood to have told allies he has lined up a Parliamentary seat. His supporters have been offering peerages to MPs willing to stand aside so he can return to Westminster, The i Paper reported last week. He was photographed arriving at Euston station hours after Sir Keir Starmer told his Cabinet he was remaining in post as he battles to save his premiership during a growing Labour revolt.

In January Burnham was blocked from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election by a Starmer-led coalition on Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee. But on Monday Starmer said only it was a matter for the NEC, as senior Labour voices former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Mayor of London Sadiq Khan said he should be allowed to stand.

A second Cabinet Minister told The i Paper: “Andy has got many, many good qualities, and I get on with him. But if he wanted to be back, he could have come back in 2024. I get the frustration that he was blocked in Gorton and Denton, but it was genuinely for a good reason, and he’s made it hard on himself. He could be back now. He could have come back as an MP in 2024. Had he done so, I’m pretty confident he’d now be in the Cabinet. But he didn’t do that, that was his choice. He made that decision, and that decision has consequences.

“I don’t see an easier, straightforward route back for Andy Burnham, or that Andy Burnham alone is going to solve all of our problems. No one person is going to solve the big political malaise and the huge challenges the country is facing and the threat of Reform.”

Nonetheless, Burnham’s personal branding is strong in the area and he remains popular in Manchester. During the Gorton and Denton by-election campaign multiple voters told The i Paper they would have voted for Labour had Burnham been the candidate. Focus group and polling data suggests he could have won the seat and others in the area.

“Andy Burnham does have a powerful appeal with Greater Manchester voters which I suspect sets him apart from the Labour government or a generic Labour candidate. But such is the unpopularity of Labour right now, and the pull of more radical options on both left and right, that nothing is guaranteed,” Robert Ford, Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester, said.

A spokesman for Burnham did not immediately reply to requests for comment.