A defiant Sir Keir Starmer is prepared to face down any attempts to topple him as his party braces for a reckoning in this week’s local elections.
Labour is predicted to see a dramatic collapse of support in Wales, Scotland and across England in Thursday’s vote.
But Starmer, who has been under threat of a leadership challenge for months, has signalled to would-be rivals his intention to battle it out to remain as PM.
The results after Thursday could be pivotal for Starmer, whose party has been teetering on the edge of a coup.
He is pulling out the big guns in his message to potential challengers, by announcing that the UK intends to start talks to join the European Union’s €90bn (£78bn) loan for Ukraine, as the Government seeks to bolster support for Kyiv and deepen defence ties with the bloc.
It comes after the PM said he was focused on the wars in Ukraine and Iran rather than speculation about possible challenges to his leadership, as the effect of those conflicts for the UK was the most important issue facing the country.
Where Labour is likely to lose
On Thursday, elections will be held for the Welsh and Scottish parliaments and councils across England, including London.
Reform UK and the Green Party of England and Wales are expected to be the main benefactors from a fall in support for Labour and the Conservatives.
Polling by More in Common, done between March and April on behalf of the Press Association, predicts Labour will go from first to third place in Wales.
Plaid Cymru and Reform are neck-and-neck with 34 seats each, the latest MRP poll suggests, but neither is on track to secure a majority. Labour is forecast to win just 14 seats.
Scottish Labour could return just 13 Members of Scottish Parliament, with 18 per cent of voters still undecided ahead of the Holyrood election.
The Scottish National Party is in the top spot, with 60 seats which would leave them five short of a majority. Reform remains in second with a projected 22 seats.
Tory peer and elections guru Lord Robert Hayward meanwhile predicted Labour will lose around 1,850 of the 2,500 English council seats it’s defending.
What leadership rivals are planning
Labour insiders have speculated for months that it would be the opportune moment for a rival – Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham or Wes Streeting – to issue a formal challenge, bringing about a leadership contest.
Rayner has publicly lent Starmer her support on recent difficult issues and, as reported in The i Paper, is undecided as to whether to take a job in Cabinet.
A source close to Streeting, meanwhile, was forced to deny reports the Health Secretary is poised to launch a leadership bid. “Wes has said repeatedly, including in several interviews last week that he supports the PM and isn’t preparing to challenge him,” they said.
Burnham is also reported to be shoring up his plans to return to Westminster by persuading a sitting MP to give up their seat and winning over the Labour Party’s ruling body, which was responsible for blocking his last attempt.
But such a return might not be the easy path to No 10 that Burnham hopes for.
“Apparently he’s convinced a sitting MP to step aside to facilitate his glorious return to Westminster, nearly 10 years after leaving,” one Labour MP said.
“Now someone else has done the hard yards in returning Labour to power after 14 years in the wilderness, Andy has decided now is the perfect time for himself to take over. I’m not sure MPs, Labour members or the country are going to be as grateful as he might think.”
A spokesperson for Burnham said they would not engage in “gossip, rumour and rubbish”, adding: “Andy’s focus is absolutely on the elections on Thursday.”
Who is heading for a reshuffle
The perceived wisdom is that even if Starmer does not face a challenge, the cost of him staying in the job will be a potentially difficult Cabinet reshuffle.
And there are questions over whether he will even have the political authority to make the significant changes he would need to.
Starmer has indicated he wants Rayner back but has not said what he would be prepared to offer her.
What she would be prepared to accept is another matter.
And Starmer is constricted in how far he can shift the dial on some of the more left-wing policies Rayner, and her allies, may push for while he still has Rachel Reeves as Chancellor and her “ironclad fiscal rules”.
A promise of a more radical agenda could require a softening of these tough restrictions on borrowing and Labour MPs have speculated that former Labour leader and current Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is vying for her job.
But Starmer and Reeves are so intrinsically linked in this administration that demoting her would be politically difficult.
A Labour MP told The i Paper: “Ed definitely wants the role of chancellor, but it is hard to see a world in which Starmer could demote Reeves without having to go himself.”
Starmer’s fightback
Despite the pressure, Starmer remained resolute in his intention to see out the full five years of his term.
An article, penned by the PM in The Observer, was intended to set out his view that it would be a mistake to divert attention from governing to a leadership contest.
Starmer believes the changing of leaders under Tory rule held the party back from being able pursue real change in government, it is understood.
But he hinted he was prepared to engage with critics on the left of his party to move forward with a more radical agenda in the incoming parliamentary session, which will begin with the King’s Speech later this month.
In his op-ed, the Prime Minister argued that instead of “sink[ing] into the politics of grievance and division” the country must “rise to this moment – together – in a national effort”.
In a clear message to his would-be challengers, Starmer said the Conservative government missed an opportunity to build a more unified nation in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and instead “descended into political infighting” which, he argued, damaged the fortunes of the country.
He also promised an “agenda of radical reform” post the local elections – signalling he was listening to those in Labour who have been dissatisfied with the direction of his Government.
This warning was mirrored by Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander who, when asked on Sunday what she would say to Starmer’s rivals, told them to “give their head a gentle wobble”.
Asking the Prime Minister to “reapply for his job” would “be the wrong thing to do”, Alexander said.
“I don’t think the public would thank us if the Labour Party turned into some sort of self-indulgent debating society when there are pockets of the world that feel like they are going to hell in a handcart at the moment,” she told Sky.