The secret meeting that has blown the Labour leadership race wide open

Rayner is hopeful that an investigation into her tax affairs will soon conclude, paving the way for her to return to frontline politics, either in Cabinet or, as her supporters are urging, with a shot at winning the big prize of the Labour leadership.

However, in a blow to her chances of securing the top job, the former deputy PM left the meeting with Haigh empty handed. No offer of support was given. And it led many MPs in the caucus to conclude support from the soft left was instead flowing towards Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, as the preferred replacement to Starmer and the salvation to Labour’s dire polling figures.

Haigh’s decision to withhold support came as no surprise to one ally. “Lou has always been a bit prickly about Rayner,” one said. “She’s a bit pissed off that Ange is still in the running to be prime minister after all her tax issues when Lou herself is widely seen to have been ruled out due to an historic spent conviction.”

Starmer is anticipating a bruising weekend, as pollsters predict the worst set of midterm election results ever for a government. Over the next 48 hours, Labour is expected to lose up to 2,000 seats across the country, as well as the Scottish and Welsh elections.

PM ‘almost at the point of no return’

The Prime Minister is preparing to face down any attempt to topple him, but many within his party now believe his time may be up. “We are almost at the point of no return,” said one Labour MP. “The public are rightly fed up with a government that promised so much and yet have delivered so little.”

In January, Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) blocked Burnham from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election in an attempt to protect a weakened Starmer from a leadership challenge from the so-called “King of the North”.

But allies of Burnham claim he has identified a new seat and will make a fresh bid to enter Westminster immediately after the local elections.

One supporter confidently predicted that the NEC would not block him again and that he would be Prime minister by September. Another ally said there would be “moral pressure” on the NEC and Starmer to let Burnham stand. However, such claims have been dismissed by other MPs as “complete bollocks” and “wishful thinking.” The makeup of the NEC is unlikely to change significantly even after July’s internal elections.

That hasn’t stopped speculation about where Burnham could stand. Bootle in Merseyside is currently held by the Labour MP Peter Dowd. He has publicly rejected suggestions that he would vacate his seat for Burnham.

However, one MP who has spoken to Dowd, said: “He thinks the Labour party is facing an existential crisis and Andy is the only one who can save it.” Other MPs thought to be under pressure to give up their seats include Charlotte Nichols, the Warrington North MP, and Marie Rimmer, the MP for St Helens South – although both deny being approached. Sources close to Burnham deny these seats were ever in contention. Another seat being watched closely is Rusholme, currently held by Afzal Khan, one of Burnham’s closest political allies and former Lord Mayor of Manchester.

Any leadership bid by Burnham faces one big stumbling block: Starmer himself. The Prime Minister has told allies that he would “never” let Burnham return to Westminster while he is in No 10.

Rayner allies: Burnham should ‘get realistic’ about his prospects

This would leave Rayner as the most popular candidate from the soft left if Burnham fails in his bid to re-enter Parliament. Her allies claim she believes that Burnham needs to “get realistic” about his prospects and get out of her way. Their message to him is to let her take the reins immediately and then Rayner will let him return to Westminster when she is installed as prime minister.

And while Rayner’s allies insist she is “genuinely undecided” about whether she will enter any leadership race, the former Housing Secretary has previously joked with friends that she will soon return to the Cabinet as its boss.

The Ashton-under-Lyne MP is also understood to have agreed a break clause in her autobiography contract that would allow her to return her paid advance in the event she became PM or returned to another prominent role. She will also pause plans for her podcast called ‘Beyond the Bubble’. One ally said: “She has to give serious consideration to the impact on her family, but if people call on her to stand in the name of public duty, then that’s another story.”

Before Rayner can mount any kind of challenge, she must first await the conclusion of a HM Revenue and Customs investigation into her alleged failure to pay the correct stamp duty on the purchase of a flat in Hove – the row that led to her resignation from Government. She expected to be cleared on 23 April and was disappointed when the outcome of the review was delayed, according to allies.

This is not the only recent setback for Rayner, whose stock appears to be waning. Last week, she was forced to deny claims that she had crashed into the entrance door of Strangers’ bar in the House of Commons after a boozy night. She told friends that she had drunk no more than four glasses of wine over the course of the evening and had eaten.

To make matters worse, Rayner has now been told by the House of Commons authorities that leftwing undercover journalists keen to expose Westminster’s drinking culture after the Green MP Hannah Spencer criticised MPs for drinking on the job, may have been secretly filming her.

Rayner stamp duty saga ‘has turned off voters’

During the local election campaign MPs have also complained that a negative view of Rayner has been coming up with voters on the doorstep and would deter Labour’s grassroots from backing her in the event of a contest.

“I’ve been surprised by how much Angela has come up as an issue on the doorsteps. People absolutely loathe her and it’s to do with the taxes,” a northern Labour MP told The i Paper. “They think she’s become ‘one of them’… and the membership is ultimately misogynistic.”

Another Welsh Labour MP said of Rayner: “I like her, but she would last six weeks. It would be fun while it lasted; the parties in No 10 would be amazing.”

A Labour MP in a London seat also reported Rayner had been mentioned by voters during campaigning, adding that neither voters or members would want to see her partner Sam Tarry, a former Labour MP who lost his seat at the last election, in Downing Street.

“That’s before we get to the tax stuff. The tax stuff completely rules her out,” the MP said. “I think she’s got loads of power. And I think she absolutely can be a kingmaker, and she can demand what role she wants, and she can bring people with her, unions and members. I just don’t think she can be number one.”

Neither Rayner or Streeting want to move first

Rayner’s closest allies believe she will only enter the race to succeed Starmer if Wes Streeting, the health secretary, enters the fray. “Then she would feel compelled to do it,” one source said. “She will not be the instigator or the first mover.”

However, allies of Streeting have suggested he will not challenge Starmer and will only enter the contest if it “all falls apart”.

And so a stalemate is developing. “Like in the start of the first world war, when the Russians mobilised, they couldn’t be stopped. But no one is mobilising yet. If Wes moves, then Ange has to move,” a Government source told The i Paper.

Such a stand-off could delay any imminent risk to Starmer – although some of Streeting’s supporters believe he will have to move quickly if he is to stand any chance of winning. His time is running out, they suggested.

Streeting’s time may be running out

“Wes has got to move. Because if it was Angela versus Wes for the leadership, I think Wes would win because her star is waning. If it’s Andy versus Wes, Andy would win. So, if Wes is going to go, he’s got to go quickly,” the MP ally of Streeting said.

Another MP who has been watching events carefully suggested Streeting’s window of opportunity would only last until the King’s Speech on May 13 when he would risk becoming seen as a “David Miliband figure” – a reference to the former foreign secretary who failed to challenge Brown in 2008. “The only one who benefits from delay is Burnham,” the MP added.

Earlier this week, it was reported that disgruntled backbenchers intend to send an open letter to Starmer demanding that he set out a timetable for his departure. The Times newspaper claimed the letter was being coordinated by the 2024 intake known as the “Starmtroopers”. There is also suggestions that a second letter coordinated by Burnham supporters is also in circulation calling for him to be allowed to return to Westminster. One source said: “The letter is code for delay and a ploy by Burnham’s supporters to stop any contest happening until he returns to Westminster.”

However, other Labour MPs are doubtful even about the existence of such letters.

That hasn’t stopped the temperature rising at Westminster. Labour MPs are planning on coming back to London on Sunday to be in the thick of the action even though Parliament is prorogued until Wednesday, according to sources.

No 10 clears Starmer’s diary for possible reshuffle

Perhaps they believe they may be offered a job if Starmer presses ahead with a reshuffle on Monday. The i Paper understands No 10 has cleared his diary. Starmer is understood to hate reshuffles and government sources insist that if any takes place it will “not be a big one.” Those rumoured to be in line for new jobs in the cabinet include Rayner and Lucy Powell, Labour’s deputy leader, who is close to Burnham and has rallied behind Starmer in recent weeks and days.

But Starmer may also still be firefighting after a torrid weekend. Sadiq Khan, the Labour Mayor of London, is expected to record a pool clip on Saturday morning. Support for Zack Polanski’s Green Party is expected to surge across the capital.

Starmer is set to face stinging criticism from all quarters of the Labour Party over the weekend. First minister of Wales Eluned Morgan could lose her Senedd seat and Labour leader in Scotland Anas Sarwar could repeat his call for Starmer to resign. More likely, according to some, is that Starmer is asked to set out a timetable for his own departure

“I think there will be a move to force Keir to set out a timetable, but I think this comes from a critical mass of people expressing their discontent on Friday and over the weekend,” said one Labour MP. “You’ll get a group of mayors from across the country who might come out for Andy, council leaders who have lost their seats, Eluned, Anas, MPs in Parliament, former cabinet members. They’ll all start making enough noise and asking the Prime Minister to set out a timetable for when he’ll go.”

Starmer’s allies insist he is going nowhere and that his chances of survival are underpriced. A Government source said: “He is still a lot stronger than people think and there is no clear candidate or path to change leader. Everyone says they hate Keir until they stand him next to another candidate.”

Starmer won the Labour leadership in April 2020 with a pledge to unite the party’s warring centrist and socialist factions. This weekend, he will have to show he’s capable of uniting the party again and moving forward. But there are plenty of candidates waiting in the wings should he fail.