Trump is flailing. And the future of his presidency is in the balance

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Six months from now, the American public will have delivered its verdict on the Trump 2.0 presidency in the midterm elections.

In this increasingly divided nation, some will be leaping joyfully out of bed while others will be turning off the alarm and pulling the sheets over their heads. One thing is for sure – Donald Trump will have spent the early hours of the morning posting animatedly on Truth Social, either jubilantly or furiously, or possibly both, depending on the results.

The speculation will be over – and the voters will have decided control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, strengthening or weakening Trump’s hand in his final two years in office. Republicans control both right now, but things aren’t looking good for the President’s party.

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In 18 of the 20 midterm elections since 1946, the sitting president’s party has lost seats in the House. When the president polls below 50 per cent, losing seats is almost a certainty. Just ask former president Barack Obama.

Right now, with Trump’s approval rating hovering around 37 per cent, Republicans are tense and anxious. The economic impact of the war with Iran, which shows no end in sight, is souring an already worrying landscape for them.

What’s at stake is arguably the very future of the Trump presidency, the difference between a lame duck president quacking his way towards January 2029 or a newly empowered Trump, who once again defies the odds and pulls victory from the jaws of defeat.

At the time of writing, the online prediction platform Polymarket, which allows wagers on political events, gives Democrats an 84 per cent chance of winning back the House, and a 51 per cent chance of winning the Senate. Democrats need to flip three seats in the House and four in the Senate.

In public, Republican lawmakers are not voicing their concerns too loudly, as speaking out would infuriate the President and could lead to a primary challenge or ritual humiliation on Truth Social – or worse. But out of sight, and perhaps using burner phones, a few Republican staffers are likely placing bets on Polymarket and other sites.

US President Donald Trump speaks with reporters prior to boarding Marine One as he departs from the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, on April 11, 2026. President Donald Trump is on his way to Florida to attend an UFC event. (Photo by Mandel NGAN / AFP via Getty Images)
President Donald Trump will face a tough final two years in office if Democrats retake Congress (Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

If Democrats flip the House, they’ll be able to exercise significant oversight over the Trump administration. This is a fate Trump is desperate to avoid. With very few exceptions, Republicans in Congress have largely rolled over and looked the other way since Trump returned to the Oval Office in January 2025, allowing the mercurial President to have his way on everything from tariffs to war powers.

Committees led by inquisitive Democrats could hold high-profile public hearings into everything from the decision to go to war with Iran, to immigration enforcement, or even the large, mysterious bets placed on prediction markets just before major breaking news. Insider trading, anyone?

Democrats could also ask difficult questions about Trump’s family and their crypto dealings or probe his decision to tear down the East Wing of the White House to build his controversial ballroom. They could call in Robert F Kennedy Jr, the Health and Human Services Secretary, and grill him over vaccine policy. Or all of the above and much else besides.

Wise heads within the Democratic Party are counselling against a third impeachment trial of Trump should they retake the House, fearing it would backfire and hurt the party’s chances of winning the presidency in 2028. But no doubt prominent voices on the left will call for yet another attempt to go after the President.

For Democrats, more effective than thinking about impeachment 3.0 would be pushing for effective oversight of the executive branch. King Charles gently ribbed Congress last month about the separation of powers, reminding Americans that the 1776 Declaration of Independence was influenced by the Magna Carta of 1215. Democrats applauded that line loudly and long. Trump is not a king but a president subject to checks and balances.

Members of Congress applaud as Britain's King Charles III arrives to speak to a Joint Meeting of Congress in the House Chamber at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on April 28, 2026. (Photo by ROBERTO SCHMIDT / AFP via Getty Images)
Members of Congress applaud as King Charles III arrives to speak at the US Capitol on 28 April, 2026 (Photo: Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images)

Given what’s at stake, it’s not surprising that Trump has strong-armed Republican-controlled states into redrawing the boundaries of seats in the House so they are more favourable to Republicans. This is known officially as redistricting, and unofficially as gerrymandering, named for 19th century Massachusetts Governor Elbridge Gerry who signed a bill redrawing districts with one in Boston resembling the shape of a salamander.

However, Democrats are fighting back with their own aggressive redistricting efforts, redrawing maps in California and Virginia.

Into this battle came the Supreme Court’s decision last week to weaken the Voting Rights Act by striking down Louisiana’s voting map as unconstitutional racial gerrymandering. This makes it harder for lawmakers to create voting districts with a majority of black voters.

In the days since, the redistricting arms race has intensified, with Republican-controlled states rapidly drawing up new maps. What this will mean come November is hard to say, given the multiple legal challenges, but Republicans seem poised to net more seats in the 2026 redistricting battle than Democrats do. However, all of this redistricting could backfire, if Republicans spread their voters too thinly over too many districts, thus turning safe seats into competitive ones. This is dangerous when public opinion is as negative towards Trump’s administration as it is right now.

It’s a fraught political environment for Trump and his party. The unpopular war in Iran is leading to higher gas prices, while Trump’s tariffs are inflationary and the man elected in part to bring down the cost of living seems more interested in military adventures abroad than grocery prices.

Even so, Democrats are sorely lacking a coherent message that isn’t simply opposing Trump and perhaps more importantly, are lacking charismatic new national voices. No one has yet risen to take over the mantle of the party. In fact, they can’t even agree on why Kamala Harris lost the presidential election to Trump in 2024.

James Talarico, the charismatic young Christian running for the Texas Senate has shown promise by winning a broad coalition of voters in the Democratic primary, in a state that has long eluded his party. He’s already being spoken of as a vice-presidential candidate in 2028. But who will be at the top of the ticket is another question. Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, and Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, are being spoken about. Meanwhile, the success of Donald Trump has some Democrats searching for an anti-establishment candidate of their own.

For the moment, it is all about the midterms, and if a week is a long time in politics, six months until those elections will feel like an eternity to many. 

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