Trump’s biggest failure as a leader will lead to a new conflict

Forget, for a moment, the pageantry. The flag-waving children. The language of partnership and apparent mutual respect.

Because beneath the choreography in Beijing sat the subject Washington still prefers to discuss obliquely: the growing possibility that the United States and China are moving towards a confrontation over Taiwan. If anything, after this summit, that prospect feels less remote.

On one side of the vast table inside the Great Hall of the People sat an imposing leader accused of testing institutional limits, centralising power around himself and insisting only he could restore national greatness. A man who presents himself as something larger than a temporary steward of the state.

And opposite him sat Xi Jinping.

Shorts – Quick stories

TRAVEL

Higher air fares in Europe are ‘inevitable’

More expensive tickets for air passengers in Europe are “inevitable” due to the surging cost of jet fuel, the head of the International Air Transport Association, Willie Walsh, has said.

An unavoidable price hike

Looking to the future

Walsh told the BBC that airlines would not be able to absorb the extra costs of rising fuel prices over time.

Summer shortages

He added that there was still concern that the UK aviation industry could face fuel shortages over the the summer.

Disruption is inevitable

Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened tomorrow, disruption may last into next year, he said.

What to expect

The UK and Europe typically rely on imports from the Middle East, so are now searching for alternatives.

• Last week, the EU said there was no regulatory reason for US-grade jet fuel not to be used by European airlines.
• The EU’s energy commissioner said there would not be serious short term issues.
• But he could not rule out longer-term supply issues.
• Walsh said there were still concerns for UK operators, but stressed there is no reason to panic.

An inescapable outcome

“There’s just no way airlines can absorb the additional costs they’re experiencing,” Walsh said.

He added: “Over time it’s inevitable that the high price of oil will be reflected in higher ticket prices”.

Exclusive

2 min read

NEWS

Trump will struggle to restart the Iran war

Kieron Monks

Foreign News Writer

The Iran war has depleted America’s weapons stockpile, leaving Donald Trump vulnerable and constraining his ability to resume hostilities, military analysts say.

The US is in short supply

Dwindling supplies

Most advanced and defensive munitions in the US arsenal were burned through in six weeks of high intensity warfare.

Trouble ahead

This could leave the Pentagon short in future conflicts, the Center for Strategic and International Studies found.

Iran remains strong

The majority of Iran’s missiles and launchers are believed to remain intact.

Concern in the US government

Trump has called the shaky ceasefire “unbelievably weak” and on “massive life support”, as negotiations have proved difficult.

Senior figures in the Trump administration, such as Vice President JD Vance, have reportedly raised serious concerns over weapons depletion.

Cheaper alternatives

The report showed a shift toward cheaper, more plentiful weaponry, requiring US bombers to be closer to their targets and take greater risk.

Democrat Senator Mark Kelly said that classified briefings had raised concerns about the US’s readiness for future conflicts. “It’s shocking how deep we have gone into these magazines,” he said.

How will this impact the war?

The depletion is likely to be a “factor” in whether Trump resumes bombing of Iran, said Mark Cancian, co-author of the study.

“I think it would be a factor because of concerns regarding future conflicts, particularly China and the Western Pacific,” he said.

WORLD

5 min read

Analysis

4 min read

One third of weight
lost after jabs is ‘from muscle and bones’

People using drugs such as Wegovy and Mounjaro are
losing weight from muscle and bones instead of fat, a study
has found.

A clear difference

The study, published at the European Congress on Obesity, found that for people using exercise and diet control, muscle and bone loss accounted for 14 per cent of the weight they dropped.

In comparison, the figure was 32 per cent for those using weight-loss jabs.

What can be done?

Strength is key

People using weight-loss jabs should do strength training, researchers said.

Risks for old age

If they don’t, they face a heightened risk of frailty, fractures and osteoporosis in later life.

Time to head to the gym

“It is vital to incorporate structured exercise into all weight-loss approaches to help preserve that mass,” researchers said.

A closer look at what the study found

The study’s authors said that people who lost a significant amount of muscle were at a higher risk of regaining the weight after stopping the use of the drugs.

This is because muscle is “more metabolically active” than fat.

MONEY

3 min read

LIFESTYLE

5 min read

NEWS

Three young women found dead in the sea at Brighton beach

Sussex Police believe they have identified three women who died in the sea off Brighton on Wednesday morning adding investigators have “a number of hypotheses” about how they died.

It is believed the women may have entered the water from the beach near where they were found, before getting into difficulty in the early hours.

What happened?

It is not yet clear how the women came to be in the water, but the coastguard has ended its search and is not looking for any others.

• Emergency teams were first called at about 5.45am on Wednesday.
• This was after a report of a single person in the water near Black Rocks car park in Madeira Drive, which goes along the beachfront.
• Two more bodies were then recovered from the sea nearby.
• The women were reportedly about 20 to 30 years old and were first seen at Brighton Palace Pier before drifting to the marina.

A tragedy for the city

It is probably the most devastating news that I’ve received in this city for a very long time. I can’t think of anything more tragic or more horrendous really.

Bella sankey, Brighton & Hove city council leader

Police call for information

Sankey said that the women had not yet been identified and their loved ones were still to be informed.

Sussex Police are exploring several lines of inquiry, and have asked anyone with information to get in touch.

OPINION

3 min read

ENVIRONMENT

Eagles to return to Exmoor despite farmer concerns

Up to 20 young white-tailed eagles are to be released in Exmoor National Park in Devon and Somerset as the species continues its comeback from being pushed to extinction in much of the British Isles.

The species, which is the UK’s largest bird of prey, has already been successfully reintroduced in the Isle of Wight and Scotland despite concerns about conflicts with farming.

Return of raptor once common in England’s skies

Also known as “sea eagles” because of their ability to hunt over open water, the white-tailed eagle was widespread in southern England until the 1700s. But hunting led to them being wiped out in the region until a breeding programme began on the Isle of Wight. Some 45 birds have been released, with the first pair breeding successfully in 2023.

Farming fears ‘unfounded’

Concerns have previously been raised that the large eagles, whose wingspan can reach 8ft, would prey on livestock such as lambs. But a study on the Isle of Wight found the birds were instead targeting cuttlefish, rabbits, fish and other birds. It found there were “no conflicts” with farming.

Exmoor, which has long expanses of coastal woodland, is considered ideal habitat for white-tailed eagles. The national park authority has pledged support for farmers in adapting to the birds.

healthy eating

Popular sandwiches with highest salt content revealed

Shop-bought sandwiches can contain an “alarmingly high” amount of salt – with one in particular containing the equivalent of nearly five McDonald’s cheeseburgers or ten bacon rashers, a study has warned.

The review of 546 sandwiches sold by high street outlets named a smoked chicken club sandwich sold by Gail’s as the nation’s saltiest. The upmarket bakery’s lunch snack contained 6.88g of salt – enough to exceed the daily adult limit of 6g in a single meal.

What you need to know

Researchers warn there are “hidden health risks” in shop-bought sarnies.

Action on Salt found nearly 50 per cent of sandwiches should carry a red “high salt” label. 32 contained half of the maximum daily salt intake.

A third of the offerings were also high in saturated fat, while 97 per cent failed to provide a third of daily recommended fibre.

Who were the worst culprits?

Several of the worst offenders are sold at Gail’s. Alongside its £8.90 club sandwich (6.88g), the upscale bakery also has a smoked salmon bagel (4.2g) and a ham and cheese croissant (2.6g), the saltiest croissant in the study. Paul’s rosette salami offering had 4.19g and Pret’s ham and grevé baguette had 3.85g.

A high salt intake is regarded as a particular health risk because of its association with high blood pressure. The condition has no symptoms and yet is responsible for around half of all heart attacks and strokes.

Pensions

What a Reform government would mean for your pension

The strong performance by Reform UK in last week’s local elections has intensified scrutiny of what a government led by Nigel Farage might mean for personal finances.

To date, the party has offered only a few detailed policies on pensions but the proposals nonetheless point to possible significant changes for retirees and savers.

What you need to know

Triple lock intact

Reform has said it will keep the guarantee that pensions will rise by the highest of inflation, wage growth or 2.5 per cent.

Public sector pensions

The same cannot be said for defined benefit schemes for teachers and NHS workers. Reform has said these pensions are too costly.

Union clash looms

Reform has said it will close DB schemes to new entrants. Experts have warned this would anger unions.

Why it’s the economy that matters when it comes to pension pots

The biggest impact of any Reform government on pensions would lie less in specific policies and more in its general marshalling of the economy, according to experts. The party has said it will reboot growth by slashing red tape and businsess taxes, thereby boosting investment performance. But some observers warn simplistic solutions risk economic stability.

PENSIONS AND RETIREMENT

5 min read

health

Are lifts still safe? Warning over UK’s obesity rates

The obesity epidemic means that many lifts are no longer big enough to transport people between floors, according to British researchers.

A study found that the maximum capacity of lifts in the UK and elsewhere in Europe has failed to keep pace with the increase in weight of the average person, raising concerns about safety and discrimination.

What you need to know

Lifts stuck in the past

The UK-based study found that despite weight growth and the obesity epidemic, the limit for elevators has not increased since about 2004.

Weighty concerns

In the 1970s, the average British man and woman weighed 75kg and 65kg, respectively. These figures now stand at 86kg and 73kg.

Capacity problems

Because lifts assume an average weight of 75kg, this means the amount of room is becoming limited and loads are getting heavier.

Super-sized society

Researchers said their findings suggested lift designs are now based on “flawed calculations” and could lead to issues like elevators cutting out if passengers exceed total weight limits. People with obesity may also feel stigmatised when entering lifts.

Lead researcher Professor Nick Finer warned of a need to “super-size” many aspects of daily life, including lifts, to make the workplace and other environments safe and suitable for people living with obesity. By 2040, as many as seven in 10 Britons are projected to be overweight or obese.

The symmetry was striking. But it only went so far. Trump arrived in Beijing with a squad of American executives and the instincts of a transactional politician. He spoke the language of chemistry, leverage and, as always, deals. For Xi, this summit was never fundamentally about tariffs or trade balances. It was about Taiwan.

This, for him, was not an “Art of the Deal” episode dressed in diplomatic costume. It was a warning. “The Taiwan issue is the most critical issue in China-US relations,” Xi said, according to Chinese state media. Mishandle it, he warned, and the two countries could “collide or even clash”, pushing relations into an “extremely dangerous situation”.

His remarks implied that he could at some point try to persuade Trump to reduce US arms sales to Taiwan, which relies on American political and military support.

Beijing sees Taiwan not as a distant aspiration, but as a medium-term and inevitable objective. Chinese officials have not ruled out the use of force. And while American presidents traditionally frame Taiwan as one issue among many in the relationship, for Xi it sits at the centre of China’s national story: the final unresolved question in what Beijing sees as the restoration of the Chinese state.

Beneath this summit sat a deeper imbalance. Not simply of military power, but of time horizons.

When Trump delayed the meeting by two months to focus on the war with Iran, the postponement consumed headlines in Washington. Politically, it mattered. After all, it represented roughly four per cent of his presidential term. But to the leadership in Beijing, a system capable of thinking in decades rather than election cycles, it may barely have registered.

At the summit, Xi spoke about “our two peoples” and “the future of humanity”. Trump often framed the summit more personally: the meeting of two powerful men. “It’s an honour to be with you,” he told Xi. “It’s an honour to be your friend.”

Later, during their visit to the Temple of Heaven, the contrast felt almost too neat. Trump may have seen beauty and spectacle, the theatre of diplomacy. Xi almost certainly saw continuity: the physical expression of a civilisation that measures itself in centuries. Beside it, the United States, at barely a quarter of a millennium old, looks historically young.

Xi’s worldview is built around patience. The slow accumulation of leverage. The assumption that pressure, applied steadily enough, eventually reshapes reality. On Thursday, he invoked the ancient Greek historian Thucydides to describe the dangers that emerge when rising and established powers collide. He speaks in civilisational terms.

“The world has come to a new crossroads,” he said. And if Beijing increasingly believes that crossroads leads through Taiwan, the implications stretch far. This would not be a contained regional dispute, or another distant conflict absorbed abroad purely through headlines.

Taiwan is the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturing hub. Chips produced there are used in smartphones, cars, hospitals, satellites, data centres and advanced weapons systems. A war over Taiwan would not feel like a distant regional conflict when supply chains are fracturing across the world. Markets could convulse. Industries could stall. The economic shock would reach directly into homes in the United States and Europe, potentially dwarfing the disruptions caused by the wars in Ukraine or Iran.

And yet modern Western politics often struggles to operate on the terrain that Xi instinctively understands.

For the Trump administration, politics moves at the speed of outrage cycles, market reactions and social media clips. The tempo has accelerated during this second term, with governance shaped by zone-flooding announcements, algorithmic attention spans and the constant pressure of immediate reaction. That is democracy, of course: reactive by design, shaped by public mood and electoral pressure.

Perhaps there’s a reminder from Beijing for politicians here – and for those of us who report on them.

While Washington ricocheted between crises and viral moments, China’s position on Taiwan appeared almost unchanged and unchallenged. If anything, the prospect of confrontation appears to have grown clearer.

It could be the crisis that defines the second Trump presidency.

In an age where political dramas erupt and disappear during a single rush-hour commute, it is easy to mistake movement for history. But some of the forces shaping this century are moving slowly, over decades, gathering weight long before they arrive in full public view. The danger is not that we cannot see them. It is that we are too distracted to look up for long enough.