What a Reform-run Britain would mean for you

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This time last year Reform UK had swept the local elections in England, leaving Westminster stunned by the scale of Nigel Farage’s breakthrough.

What’s different about this year’s round of local elections in England, and devolved government polls in Wales and Scotland, is the lack of shock – Reform’s relentless continued advance has been wholly expected and predictable.

Projections show that a general election based on Thursday’s vote share would lead to a hung parliament, with Reform the largest party, meaning Nigel Farage would very likely be the prime minister.

Shorts – Quick stories

So how has he got here and what would he do in No 10?

Repeating the success of 2025

In the 2025 local elections, Reform won the largest number of seats, taking 41 per cent of all seats up for election and picking up nine councils.

At the time, some people suggested that it might be a flash in the pan, or that Reform would make such a hash of running its councils that voters would quickly drop them.

So far, that has not happened. While Reform has had a rocky year in a number of its councils – with substantial efficiency savings proving hard to find and infighting breaking out in some places – it has not put people off voting for them.

Farage said on Friday: “What you’re seeing is voters who aren’t just coming to us for a one off, they’re now becoming Reformers in every way”.

Poll lead borne out

Reform has led in every poll for more than a year. While its polling average has dipped a little in recent months, the results from these elections demonstrate that the party’s lead over its rivals is not a mirage.

In a sample of more than 500 wards where the polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice collected detailed voting figures for the BBC, the party had an average vote share of 26 per cent. While that is not a particularly high figure historically for a local election winner, it still puts Reform comfortably above its opponents, and roughly matches where the party is currently in the polls.

James Frayne, a veteran political strategist, told The i Paper: “Reform have really only just performed in line with what a lot of the polls have been saying. People that are surprised by it just haven’t been paying attention.”

Gains across the country

In Farage’s first media appearance on Friday morning, the Reform leader drew attention to the geographical spread of the party’s victories. “We are competitive, right down from the South West of England, up to the north-east of Scotland,” he said.

It was a message which Reform HQ deliberately underscored with its choice of celebratory visits for Farage.

First, he popped up in Havering, where Reform had won its first London borough. In the afternoon, he travelled to St Helens, where he predicted Reform would take control of the council – for decades, Merseyside has been a Labour stronghold.

As well as winning in Labour’s backyard, Reform took a huge Tory scalp by winning Essex County Council – Kemi Badenoch’s local authority – and the final stop of Farage’s victory tour.

Reform’s second place billing in Wales behind Plaid Cymru, pushing Labour into a distant third, meanwhile shows that the party is not purely an English phenomenon.

Favourite for largest party at next general election

Frayne said that the results confirmed that Farage is in “pole position” to be prime minister after the next general election. “It’s still going to be very difficult for him to secure a majority,” he said. “The polls have generally put him mid to high 20s… they’ve definitely dropped a little over the course of the last several months.”

Last month, an MRP “mega poll” by the More in Common think-tank forecast that on the basis of a 28 per cent vote share, Reform would be one seat short of a Commons majority.

A forecast by Professor Michael Thrasher of national equivalent vote share – an estimate of each party’s vote share in the local elections projected into a nationwide vote – suggested Reform would get 284 seats at a general election based on today’s results, short of the 326 needed for a majority, with Labour in second place with 110.

Frayne went on: “They’re shooting towards largest party status, rather than a majority. I don’t think it’s impossible that they could increase their vote share further, but it would be difficult.”

According to Frayne, the most likely scenario as things stand is that Farage would get over the line by negotiating “some sort of coalition of the willing with some right-leaning Tories”.

“I would imagine behind the scenes, there will be very discreet conversations with some of those prospective Tories that might make up their coalition,” he said.

What could change?

While Farage is currently in pole position, it is of course essential to note that the general election is probably still three years away. The half point of Labour’s term will be Christmas by that measure.

Given how volatile British politics has been in recent years, there is still time for much to change. One of the key variables will be who leads Labour into the next election, with many in the party expecting Sir Keir Starmer to stand aside before then, even if he is not immediately ousted.

This set of elections is also very different to choosing the prime minister, and it is possible voters may think differently about putting Farage in No 10.

As The i Paper reported this week, an emerging Labour strategy will be to try to unite a “progressive block” of voters who are terrified by the prospect of Farage in Downing Street.

What would a Reform government look like?

Immigration

Reform have vowed to stop the Channel crossings by deporting 600,000 migrants over five years, saying anyone coming to the UK in a small boat will be barred from claiming asylum, and that countries such as Afghanistan will be paid to take their nationals back. The party has said that detention centres for holding migrants before they are deported will be based in constituencies and councils controlled by the Greens.

Welfare and pensions

The party has pledged to keep the state pension triple lock, which it has said it will pay for with “the biggest cuts to the benefits bill ever seen in the history of this country”. It has pledged to restore the two-child benefit cap.

Economy

Last November, in a bid to improve Reform’s economic credibility, Farage backtracked on the party’s pledge at the last general election to slash taxes by £90bn a year. Robert Jenrick, the party’s Treasury spokesman, has pledged to keep the Office for Budget Responsibility and maintain the independence of the Bank of England.

Education

Reform’s education policy remains thin, though education spokesman Suella Braverman has said that if the party gets into power it will introduce “patriotic” history lessons and require every school to display the King’s portrait and fly the Union flag.

Environment

Reform’s business spokesman, Richard Tice, has called man-made climate change “garbage”. The party has backed more extraction of oil and gas from the North Sea and would allow fracking. Tice has also said that Reform would axe deals which Labour has struck with renewable energy developers.

Health, defence and foreign policy

There are still many holes in Reform’s policy agenda. With only eight MPs, it lacks spokespeople across major policy areas including health, defence and foreign policy.

The party has said little on health. Farage has previously spoken about shifting to an insurance-based system, although Reform insists it will “never” charge for the NHS.

On defence, the party’s last manifesto committed to raising military spending to 3 per cent of gross domestic product, though it is not clear how this will be funded. Farage would tear up the “reset” deal which Starmer agreed with the EU, and would probably seek close relations with the US, particularly if it is under a Republican administration.

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