What Rayner as PM could mean for your taxes, welfare and immigration

Rayner’s speeches, and her track record in government before she quit the Cabinet last year after a row over her taxes, lay out the broad direction in which she would take the country if she got to No 10.

Taxes

Although she served in Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow Cabinet, Rayner has usually been associated with the “soft left” rather than Corbyn’s hard-left wing which backs sharply higher taxes across the board.

In a speech last month to the Good Growth Foundation, she talked about “stopping the extraction and hoarding of wealth and power” in a suggestion she may be open to targeted tax increases on the richest individuals and big businesses.

And in a memo to the Chancellor last year, she proposed a number of specific measures including higher taxes on banks, a limit on the amount that savers can put into their tax-free pension, and taxing dividends more highly.

While her allies have emphasised that these ideas were tied to the fiscal situation at the time, it is a further sign that Rayner would seek to extract more revenue from wealthier groups.

Welfare and public spending

Rayner has let it be known that she opposed the failed attempt to cut spending on disability benefits last year.

She used a speech to Mainstream, a Labour faction closely associated with Andy Burnham, in March to call for “a renewed, relentless focus on tackling the cost of living crisis” – adding that the Government should be “bringing down the price of your food, your energy, your water, not being ripped off”.

That may be seen as a hint than Rayner would be more open than Rachel Reeves to the idea of directly intervening to control prices, particularly for as long as the effects of the Iran war continue to push up the cost of living.

More broadly, she has talked about the importance of “investment in public services and infrastructure”, including green energy, suggesting she would continue and extend the current Government’s policy of borrowing money for long-term projects.

Employment rights

The policy of which Rayner is proudest is her Employment Rights Act. She told Mainstream: “For millions of workers after decades of low pay and insecurity, we chose stronger rights and security.”

At key moments, Starmer has agreed to compromise on the act, including by removing the protection against unfair dismissal for new employees.

As Prime Minister, Rayner could push to go further and fulfil all the manifesto promises Labour made at the last election – as well as continuing to raise the minimum wage, which she has said is essential to provide an income which it is possible to live on.

Housing and local government

In her 14 months as Housing Secretary, Rayner passed the Renters’ Rights Act which has now come into force and makes it much harder for landlords to evict tenants.

She boasted to the Good Growth Foundation that her plans to build more homes would help to boost the economy, and added: “I was proud of our record investment in social and affordable housebuilding, which will create good quality jobs right across the country, provide secure homes and lower housing costs.”

Her comments imply that in the event of a shortfall in Labour’s ambitious targets for new housing, she would look to make up the gap by building more social homes – using a £39bn pot promised by the Treasury – rather than leaving it to the market.

Rayner has also made it clear she is passionate about giving more power to local councils. She told Mainstream: “Devolving power brings it closer to local people and business, and gives us joined-up solutions to complicated problems.”

Immigration

While she has never dissented from the Government’s overall aim of reducing net migration, Rayner has called for a less tough system for those already living in the UK.

She publicly denounced Shabana Mahmood’s plan to make it harder for immigrants who arrived here in the past few years to get the permanent right to remain.

Her position suggests that she would make cutting numbers less of a priority if she were running No 10.

Foreign affairs and defence

Rayner has never had a political job with directly responsibility for foreign policy or defence, although she did make some overseas trips when she was Starmer’s deputy.

She has not joined the calls for the UK Government to take a more assertive stance towards Donald Trump; it is unknown how she would seek to build a rapport with the unpredictable US President.

While most of the soft left is keen for closer ties to the EU, Rayner’s track record is one of scepticism towards the anti-Brexit movement so she may resist calls to go much further on the so-called “reset”.

Unintended consequences

Opponents of Rayner say the greatest danger she poses is not through any one of her policies, but the risk of a markets meltdown prompted by traders who do not believe she can control the public finances.

She has held meetings this year with City figures to discuss UK economic policy and subtly reassure them she has a grasp of the importance of a balanced budget.

But if her enemies were right, the biggest effect of a Rayner premiership on the general public would be to push up inflation and the cost of borrowing in Liz Truss-style crisis.