Cabinet ministers could move to oust Sir Keir Starmer as soon as next week if a crunch speech to reset his leadership falls flat, senior Labour insiders believe.
The failure of six key Cabinet members to fully endorse the Prime Minister after devastating local elections results on Friday poses a “big risk” to Starmer, a Government source told The i Paper.
Ed Miliband, who is already reported to have told Starmer to set out a timeline for his resignation, Lisa Nandy, Wes Streeting, Yvette Cooper, Pat McFadden and Shabana Mahmood have all refused to explicitly back the Prime Minister keeping the top job.
This was in contrast to February, when the entire Cabinet rallied around Starmer when Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar called for his resignation, prompting Miliband to say the party “looked over the precipice” and decided against a leadership challenge.
The Government source said most ministers and MPs believe that Starmer should have a chance to “set out how he is going to turn it around” next week. Starmer has planned a key reset speech on Monday, ahead of the King’s Speech announcing his legislative agenda on Wednesday.
Ministers “will judge on whether he can get us out of this hole” and could decide to move against him if he does not rise to the moment, the insider said.
Meanwhie, Labour MP Catherine West, who lost her job as a minister in the Foreign Office in September’s reshuffle, has threatened to trigger a leadership challenge against Starmer unless a Cabinet minister moves to oust him by Monday.
The i Paper understands that a men-in-grey-suits style delegation to No 10 to call for Starmer to quit is more likely than ministers resigning from the Cabinet if they do not approve of the Prime Minister’s reset.
It is unclear whether ministers would choose to amplify dozens of MPs’ calls for Starmer to set out a timeline for his departure, which would be seen to favour Andy Burnham as the next leader, or push for his immediate resignation, which may favour rivals Streeting and Angela Rayner.
‘People are rapidly losing faith in Starmer’
The source added: “It was quite telling that the Cabinet did not respond in the same way as they did when Anas called for Keir to go.
“Most importantly it was the big figures in the Cabinet, the ones that feel they have enough clout that they don’t have to put something out that’s just bland and supportive.
“Shabana, Pat, Yvette, Wes, Ed and Lisa – that is the right to the left in the Labour Cabinet.
“That is the big risk to Keir, if he doesn’t persuade those people, I just don’t think he’s strong enough to sack Yvette Cooper or Ed Miliband.”
Asked whether Cabinet ministers could move against Starmer, another Labour insider said: “People are rapidly losing any remaining faith in him.”
A source close to Mahmood, however, insisted the Home Secretary supported the PM and denied any chance of a leadership move next week.
Cooper’s allies pointed to the fact that she was one of the first Cabinet ministers to respond to the local election defeats on Friday. They said the Labour response must be “steady, thoughtful and reflective” and not entirely based on the Prime Minister’s leadership.
The other ministers have been contacted for comment.
Starmer began his fightback on Saturday with the appointments of Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman as advisers on global finance and women and girls respectively, although these appeared to trigger an immediate backlash from some of the party’s MPs.
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A No 10 source insisted there was “clear support” for the PM from his Cabinet. They pointed to Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell, seen as a Manchester ally of Burnham, who said on Saturday that Starmer should remain in post.
The source, meanwhile, said Starmer’s speech on Monday would look to inject hope and optimism back in his vision of the country.
The PM is expected to talk about opportunities for young people, and frame the Government’s key story as improving life chances for future generations with measures like lifting the two-child benefit cap, free breakfast clubs, expanding free school meals.
The Prime Minister is expected to announce new policy but the speech will be mainly focused on values and vision.
Speaking on Saturday, Starmer insisted he would not “walk away” from his job as it would “plunge the country into chaos”.
“But that doesn’t mean we don’t need to respond. It doesn’t mean we don’t need to rebuild. It doesn’t mean that we don’t need to set out the path ahead,” he said during a visit to south London.
“That’s what I’m going to do in the coming days.”
Many in Labour believe Starmer was granted a stay of execution after the local election defeats – as most MPs calling for his head have urged him to set out a timeline to resign, rather than going immediately.
This is seen as a mechanism to give Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, time to fight a by-election and return to Parliament – to then become leader.
However, this means MPs could become split and unable to reach a “critical mass” that could bring about a change at the top, the Government source said.
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Rayner was also keeping her counsel. The former Labour deputy is seen as the other potential game-changer if she decides to launch a challenge now, likely for fear of losing soft-left support to Burnham in the longer term.
Sources close to Streeting, the other leading contender, said good local election results for Labour in his Redbridge Council, where the party still has a majority, “smash this narrative that Wes is going to lose his seat at the next election and needs to do a chicken run”.
Meanwhile, insiders believe Burnham will struggle to return as an MP after Reform took swathes of council seats in Greater Manchester, meaning if he quits as mayor it would risk a Labour defeat in the city. This could give Starmer a reason to block his candidacy for Parliament again via the party’s National Executive Committee.
“Unless Keir is convinced that he should let the fox into the henhouse, he [Burnham] can’t get back,” a second Government source said.
A Labour insider said: “The PLP are catching up with the public fast when it comes to losing confidence in his leadership.
“The real question now is who do they want instead, and can the party find a way to get from A to B without damaging the government even more than it is damaged already.
“Given the PLP doesn’t rate Wes or Angela, and No10 is blocking Andy, the most likely outcome is limping on.”