Putin is under pressure to end his war

by

After Vladimir Putin’s rather underwhelming Victory Day parade over the weekend, the Russian President met with veterans of the Second World War – and told them that the war with Ukraine might be over soon.

Putin was talking about a Russian victory and gave no hint of a compromise, but the comment could reflect the influence of some in his circle who are trying to nudge Putin towards an end to the conflict.

The war is largely stalemated, though Russian forces are still grinding ever so slowly towards Ukraine’s fortress cities like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the final portion of the contested Donbas region still in Kyiv’s hands. At home, however, the costs – economic and political – are mounting for Putin.

Shorts – Quick stories

And for some inside the Presidential Administration – best described as Putin’s equivalent of the Cabinet Office, but on steroids – the war has reached the point of diminishing returns. As one well-connected Russian political journalist told The i Paper: “Wasting another year and hundreds of thousands of men to take some cities that by then will just be ruins doesn’t seem to make any sense to them.”

Yet Putin is not a man to be told he is wrong to his face. So, in true Yes Minister fashion, his underlings try to nudge him gently towards the decisions they want him to make. We are now seeing hints of such a campaign over Ukraine, driven by the political technocrats within the Presidential Administration.

First, a report prepared for the Presidential Administration in February has just been leaked. It paints the political risks of continuing the so-called “special military operation” against Ukraine in stark terms. “We must know when to stop,” it warned, adding that beyond a certain point, “continuing the special military operation would be a Pyrrhic victory” and would require “a reconsideration of fundamental positions”.

TOPSHOT - Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a ceremony to lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier by the Kremlin wall in central Moscow on May 9, 2026. Russia celebrates the 81st anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two (WWII). (Photo by Alexander NEMENOV / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)
Putin is not a man to be told he is wrong to his face (Photo: Alexander Nemenov/AFP)

The report suggested that simply freezing the front lines, possibly even without the remaining portion of the Donbas, could be spun as a triumph. One that, in its words, shows that “Putin has bent the West. We’ve thwarted the West’s plans to expand and prolong the conflict”.

At the same time, polling data has emerged that shows Putin’s numbers slipping. His approval rating of 65.6 per cent is high by the standards of any Western politician, but it is still at its lowest level since the war began. These numbers would not have been released without a green light from the Presidential Administration.

And as if that wasn’t enough, Putin’s United Russia party has just released guidance for its campaign workers ahead of the parliamentary elections later this year on how to handle difficult questions. The clear implication is that people in Russia are not happy.

All in all, it looks like part of a campaign to persuade Putin to think about a possible peace with Ukraine.

DONETSK OBLAST, UKRAINE - JANUARY 7: A Ukrainian tank on a road in the direction of Kostiantynivka, Ukraine, on 7 January 2026. (Photo by Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images)
A Ukrainian tank on a road near Kostiantynivka in the Donbas region of Ukraine. Russian forces are still grinding ever so slowly through the final portion of the contested region still in Kyiv’s hands (Photo: Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu)

What is interesting is that its advocates cannot be considered doves, so much as pragmatists, and they remained very much divided on the best approach. Some would like to see Russia cut its losses now, others, like foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, think that Kyiv still needs to withdraw its forces from that last piece of Donbas before Moscow can declare peace.

Meanwhile, nationalists and many within Russia’s security bloc are lobbying Putin to keep on fighting. They are encouraging him to believe that this year, Russian troops will be able to take that last piece of the Donbas, regardless.

There are also ultranationalists urging escalation against Ukraine, from social media commentators calling for a general mobilisation to the hawkish academic Sergei Karaganov, who has advocated – fortunately with little success – the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

Putin is an inveterate fence-sitter, known for putting off tough decisions as long as he possibly can. So far, he seems inclined to see whether a renewed Russian spring offensive can make gains on the ground in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen on a screen while delivering a speech during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow, Saturday, May 9, 2026, during celebrations of the 81st anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany during the World War II. (Shamil Zhumatov/Pool Photo via AP)
Putin during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow last Saturday. The Russian President is known for putting off tough decisions as long as he possibly can (Photo: Shamil Zhumatov/AP)

When might Putin get off the fence? No one knows – not even him. He may continue to dither in the hope that something happens to make the decision for him. That could last all the way until the autumn, when the temptation will be to spend another winter hammering Ukraine’s power grid in the hope of breaking the country’s morale. That hasn’t worked in previous years.

Nonetheless, this is the first time we are really seeing anything that even hints at a pragmatic’ end the war’ perspective from inside Putin’s own political machine.

Will he be swayed? So far, there are no signs that he is, except for one small tell. For years, Putin has refused to acknowledge that Volodymyr Zelensky is Ukraine’s legitimate president. He has called him a neo-Nazi, Western puppet, even “the drug addict in Kyiv”. But recently, he referred to him as Mr Zelensky.

A tiny step forward, but a step forward nonetheless.

Leave a Comment