Reform is set to take control of these areas – what it means if you live there

The eight councils projected to turn turqouise are Cannock Chase, Tamworth, Nuneaton and Bedworth, Dudley, Redditch, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Walsall and Rugby.

In Wolverhampton, Sandwell, Birmingham, Coventry and Solihull, the projected result is within five points or less.

Here The i Paper looks at what promises have been made and what a Reform-led council could mean for households in the region.

Bins

One of the most high-profile political stories in the West Midlands is the ongoing bin strike in Birmingham.

Refuse workers first walked out more than a year ago in a dispute over jobs and conditions, leading to rubbish piling up the streets and residents plagued by an increase in rats.

Last week, Labour leaders announced a new offer was on the table which both sides said could end the dispute, though it has not yet been completed.

Other political parties raised suspicions about the timing of the announcement, and discussions of how the strike should be handled continues to be a major issue in the run-up to polling day.

Reform’s campaign in Birmingham has been led by 24-year-old Jex Parkin.

He has pledged to end the strike telling the BBC: “We’d seek the correct legal advice from both parties in order to get an end to the bin strike, clean up our streets, get the finances in order and deliver change for Birmingham.”

In separate comments to the Birmingham Mail, Parkin added that he would end the strikes by offering “fair pay deals that also demand proper productivity”.

The prospect of dealing with Reform has already caused a headache for Unite the Union which is leading the walkout.

Some factions of the trade union movement feel general secretary Sharon Graham has not made enough effort to distance herself and her organisation from Farage.

Last month, it emerged Graham had spoken to Reform’s leadership in private about the bin strike.

Graham confirmed the meeting but said she was willing to speak to all political parties to seek their support to end the dispute.

The situation remains delicate and the consequences of a Reform victory in Birmingham are unclear.

Council tax

Reform has made repeated promises to cut taxes and alleged waste in local government spending in recent years.

The party is delivering a similar message ahead of the elections on 7 May.

In Sandwell, chairman Ray Nock had pledged to freeze council tax next year and scrap parking charges.

The council, currently controlled by Labour, put up council tax by 4.99 per cent this year, the fourth consecutive year there has been the maximum increase permitted.

Leaders said it was the only way to cover spiralling costs with a deficit expected to reach £48m by 2030.

Reform has faced similar problems delivering the cuts in council tax and spending it promised in other areas.

In nearby Worcestershire, Reform has had to raise council tax by 9 per cent to tackle a financial crisis at the authority, despite having pledged to cut it during campaigning.

However, Nock told the Express and Star that his team, including four candidates who work as accountants, believes it can cut costs in Sandwell.

“The council tax keeps going up every year, and that can’t carry on,” he added.

Crackdown on HMOs

Reform has also promised to crackdown on the spread of HMOs (Houses of Multiple Occupation) in the West Midlands.

During a visit to Sedgley, a town in Dudley, Farage dismissed Labour’s recent announcement that it will close hotels housing asylum seekers, claiming that it would mean they are simply moved into HMOs instead.

Speaking to reporters, Farage said: “Hotels closing on the face of it might look like good news but it’s probably incredibly bad news because the people who were in the hotels don’t just disappear in a puff of smoke.

“They then get put into HMOs in residential streets.

“If you look at the statistics for Dudley, Wolverhampton, look at Smethwick, look at all these towns around here, basically you guys here are the HMO capitals of Britain.”

Farage said that councils should start rejecting planning applications for HMOs in their area, and rejected the idea that they are restricted by planning laws.

He said Reform-led councils in the region would be “very bloody-minded” and “make things much more difficult” for developers.

Potholes and green belt

Other policy areas where Reform has been making promises in the West Midlands include roads, housing and policing.

The party claims it will fix more potholes than other parties.

Labour is acutely aware of how much it is a topic that bothers voters in the area, with the party’s West Midlands Mayor, Richard Parker, announcing plans for a new fund for road repairs worth £240m earlier this year.

But in Dudley, for example, Reform candidate Marco Longhi claims local people have been “totally ignored” when it comes to road repairs and is promising only his party will “fix the mess”.

In Solihull, Reform leader Michael Gough has vowed to protect green belt land wherever possible to “end the speculative housing free-for-all that has plagued the borough under previous leadership.”

The council is currently led by the Conservatives, but with every seat up for election this year, Reform is in contention to change the balance of power.

With two thirds of the borough designated as green belt, new housing is a major issue and the council was forced to withdraw its local plan, its overall blueprint for housing, in 2024 due to disagreements over where an extra 2,000 homes can be built.

A new plan has yet to be submitted with the government setting a deadline of December 2026.

Reform leaders in Solihull say their position is that brownfield land should be built on first and that their party would prioritise sites such as UK Central near the M42 motorway and the HS2 Interchange.

Labour facing ‘record-breaking meltdown’

Jon Tonge, professor in British politics at the University of Liverpool, said he is expecting “record-breaking” losses for Labour in the local elections, with the party losing as many as 1,800 seats.

He predicts the West Midlands to be one of the success stories for Reform, partly because it is an area where authorities are electing all councillors, not just a third as is usually the case.

“They are potentially very volatile, there could be huge changes there,” he added.

“Labour will do pitifully I think on Thursday, even if you think you can’t bring yourself to vote Reform as a Labour supporter, which plenty of Labour people will feel like that, they will stay at home.”

Tonge said that the result could also see Reform looking to enter coalitions with the Conservatives in some areas, but that ultimately the party will face the same difficulties it has governing in other places.

“I think there’s a slightly improved knowledge of local governance in 2026, but they are still political novices, they haven’t got any experience,” he said.

“Farage, in fairness, has been quite open about the need for more governing capability. It’s a very steep learning curve for them.”